Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox — Game center Final MLB
Oct 9 (Fri) · 12:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Cleveland Guardians 20%
Chicago White Sox 80%
Locked before start
Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ 60% Hit Chicago White Sox home +1.5· Run Line 87% Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ 59% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.500 (home 2-2) vs away 2-2 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 3, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Cleveland Guardians Chicago White Sox
Pitching matchup
PM Parker Messick Appearance confirmed
HS Hagen Smith Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 65°F· wind 3 mph, In From CF· park factor runs 101· HR 106
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 60%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.239· BvP 4/15 adjusted 0.332, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.346
+8.4%p Park Runs 101 / HR 106 65°F 3 mph, In From CF Chicago White Sox 8 OUT (Luis Castillo …) Cleveland Guardians 3 OUT (Colin Holderman …) last 15G AVG 0.346 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.350 (157PA) Statcast xBA 0.239 (actual 0.276, overrated 37p) BvP career 4/15 (.267, K 3·HR 0) → weight 7% Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago White Sox home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
87% Chicago White Sox home -1.5· Run Line Cleveland Guardians away +1.5· Run Line Cleveland Guardians away -1.5· Run Line games6 Chicago White Sox Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.500 (home 2-2) vs away 2-2 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 3, matchup combination model
runs 5/10 Miss
80% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Cleveland Guardians team runs Over 3.5· Runs Chicago White Sox team runs Over 4.5· Runs Cleveland Guardians Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.500 (away 2-2) vs home 2-2 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 9/6 Hit
20% batter84 CM Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.239· BvP 4/15 adjusted 0.332, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
60% Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Ramírez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Steven Kwan Hits 1+· hits 1+ Steven Kwan Walks 1+· walks 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Ramírez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Munetaka Murakami Walks 1+· walks 1+ Travis Bazzana Walks 1+· walks 1+ Miguel Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Miguel Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Miguel Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Angel Martínez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Angel Martínez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brayan Rocchio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Colson Montgomery RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Colson Montgomery Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase DeLauter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Colson Montgomery 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase DeLauter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Angel Martínez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase DeLauter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Travis Bazzana RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Steven Kwan 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Travis Bazzana 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase Meidroth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brayan Rocchio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brayan Rocchio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tristan Peters Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tristan Peters RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Miguel Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sam Antonacci 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tristan Peters Walks 1+· walks 1+ Travis Bazzana Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tristan Peters 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Steven Kwan Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sam Antonacci RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Ramírez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery Hits 2+· hits 2+ Steven Kwan RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 2+· hits 2+ Steven Kwan Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery HR· HR 1+ Miguel Vargas HR· HR 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tristan Peters Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez HR· HR 1+ Angel Martínez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase Meidroth HR· HR 1+ Chase DeLauter HR· HR 1+ Travis Bazzana HR· HR 1+ José Ramírez HR· HR 1+ Brayan Rocchio HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci HR· HR 1+ Steven Kwan HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
