Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals — Game center Final MLB
Sep 25 (Fri) · 11:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Cleveland Guardians 59%
Kansas City Royals 41%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.525 (away 84-76) vs home 68-92 0.425, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Cleveland Guardians Kansas City Royals
Pitching matchup
GW Gavin Williams Appearance confirmed
NC Noah Cameron Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Rain 65°F· wind 4 mph, R To L· park factor runs 100· HR 91
Data source: MLB Stats API
Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Ramírez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Cleveland Guardians away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
73% Kansas City Royals home +1.5· Run Line Cleveland Guardians away -1.5· Run Line Kansas City Royals home -1.5· Run Line games6 Cleveland Guardians team runs Over 3.5· Runs Medium
season 4.2runs/G → park·weather·Opposing bullpen adjusted 4.0 pts, scoring distribution P(≥4)· simulation· stacking +10pp (meta-model over 414 past events)· cap applied
runs 12/4 Hit
72% Cleveland Guardians Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.525 (away 84-76) vs home 68-92 0.425, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 12/10 Hit
59% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Kansas City Royals Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.425 (home 68-92) vs away 84-76 0.525, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 3, matchup combination model
runs 9/13 Miss
41% Kansas City Royals team runs Over 3.5· Runs batter84 Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Ramírez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Steven Kwan Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Massey Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Steven Kwan Walks 1+· walks 1+ Angel Martínez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Isaac Collins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase DeLauter Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Ramírez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Travis Bazzana Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase DeLauter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Ramírez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Collins Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Ramírez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase DeLauter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Angel Martínez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Steven Kwan 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Travis Bazzana RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carter Jensen Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brayan Rocchio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Angel Martínez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jac Caglianone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Travis Bazzana 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jac Caglianone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carter Jensen RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carter Jensen Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Salvador Perez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carter Jensen 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jac Caglianone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Salvador Perez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Massey RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Steven Kwan Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Travis Bazzana Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Salvador Perez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Massey Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Ramírez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Massey 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Steven Kwan RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brayan Rocchio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Collins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Steven Kwan Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jac Caglianone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Salvador Perez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Travis Bazzana Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carter Jensen Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Massey Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez HR· HR 1+ Carter Jensen HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jac Caglianone HR· HR 1+ Salvador Perez HR· HR 1+ Chase DeLauter HR· HR 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. HR· HR 1+ Salvador Perez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Massey HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Ramírez HR· HR 1+ Travis Bazzana HR· HR 1+ Angel Martínez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brayan Rocchio HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins HR· HR 1+ Steven Kwan HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
