Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals — Game center Final MLB
Sep 26 (Sat) · 11:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Cleveland Guardians 59%
Kansas City Royals 41%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.528 (away 85-76) vs home 68-93 0.422, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Cleveland Guardians Kansas City Royals
Pitching matchup
TB Tanner Bibee Appearance confirmed
MW Michael Wacha Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 74°F· wind 5 mph, R To L· park factor runs 100· HR 91
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.283 adjusted 0.317, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.362
+8.8%p Park Runs 100 / HR 91 74°F 5 mph, R To L Kansas City Royals 12 OUT (Steven Cruz …) Cleveland Guardians 3 OUT (Colin Holderman …) last 15G AVG 0.362 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.304 (349PA) Statcast xBA 0.283 (actual 0.289, overrated 6p) Brayan Rocchio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Cleveland Guardians away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
73% Kansas City Royals home +1.5· Run Line Cleveland Guardians away -1.5· Run Line Kansas City Royals home -1.5· Run Line batter84 JC Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.283 adjusted 0.317, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
64% Brayan Rocchio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Steven Kwan Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 1+· hits 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Ramírez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Massey Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Steven Kwan Walks 1+· walks 1+ Angel Martínez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jac Caglianone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Angel Martínez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Ramírez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Collins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jac Caglianone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Travis Bazzana RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brayan Rocchio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Travis Bazzana 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carter Jensen Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brayan Rocchio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase DeLauter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Travis Bazzana Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase DeLauter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carter Jensen RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Steven Kwan 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase DeLauter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase DeLauter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Travis Bazzana Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carter Jensen Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Ramírez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carter Jensen 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Angel Martínez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jac Caglianone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Salvador Perez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Steven Kwan Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Salvador Perez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Salvador Perez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Massey RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Ramírez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Massey Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Massey 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Steven Kwan RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Collins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase DeLauter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Steven Kwan Hits 2+· hits 2+ Travis Bazzana Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brayan Rocchio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 2+· hits 2+ Salvador Perez Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Ramírez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Massey Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jac Caglianone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carter Jensen HR· HR 1+ Jac Caglianone HR· HR 1+ Angel Martínez HR· HR 1+ Salvador Perez HR· HR 1+ Travis Bazzana HR· HR 1+ Chase DeLauter HR· HR 1+ Brayan Rocchio HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Massey HR· HR 1+ Salvador Perez Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Ramírez HR· HR 1+ Angel Martínez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Collins HR· HR 1+ Steven Kwan HR· HR 1+ games6 Cleveland Guardians Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.528 (away 85-76) vs home 68-93 0.422, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 11/6 Hit
59% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Cleveland Guardians team runs Over 4.5· Runs Kansas City Royals team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Kansas City Royals Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.422 (home 68-93) vs away 85-76 0.528, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 3, matchup combination model
runs 5/12 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
