Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals — Game center Final MLB
Sep 27 (Sun) · 7:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Cleveland Guardians 59%
Kansas City Royals 41%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.525 (away 85-77) vs home 69-93 0.426, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Cleveland Guardians Kansas City Royals
Pitching matchup
PM Parker Messick Appearance confirmed
DI Daniel Lynch IV Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 72°F· wind 4 mph, R To L· park factor runs 100· HR 91
Data source: MLB Stats API
Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Ramírez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Cleveland Guardians away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
73% Kansas City Royals home +1.5· Run Line Cleveland Guardians away -1.5· Run Line Kansas City Royals home -1.5· Run Line games6 Cleveland Guardians team runs Over 3.5· Runs Medium
season 4.2runs/G → park·weather·Opposing bullpen adjusted 4.0 pts, scoring distribution P(≥4)· simulation· stacking +10pp (meta-model over 414 past events)· cap applied
runs 2/4 Miss
73% Cleveland Guardians Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.525 (away 85-77) vs home 69-93 0.426, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/4 Miss
59% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Kansas City Royals Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.426 (home 69-93) vs away 85-77 0.525, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 3, matchup combination model
runs 3/3 Hit
41% Kansas City Royals team runs Over 3.5· Runs batter84 Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Ramírez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Steven Kwan Hits 1+· hits 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Massey Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Angel Martínez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Steven Kwan Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase DeLauter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase DeLauter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Ramírez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Angel Martínez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Travis Bazzana Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Ramírez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Angel Martínez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase DeLauter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Steven Kwan 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Travis Bazzana 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brayan Rocchio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Travis Bazzana RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Collins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brayan Rocchio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brayan Rocchio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase DeLauter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Salvador Perez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jac Caglianone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carter Jensen Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carter Jensen Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jac Caglianone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Travis Bazzana Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carter Jensen RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Salvador Perez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Steven Kwan Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Massey Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Salvador Perez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carter Jensen 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Steven Kwan RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Massey RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brayan Rocchio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jac Caglianone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Massey 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Collins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Collins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Steven Kwan Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jac Caglianone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Travis Bazzana Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Massey Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez HR· HR 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jac Caglianone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Salvador Perez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase DeLauter HR· HR 1+ Carter Jensen HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey Walks 1+· walks 1+ Salvador Perez HR· HR 1+ Jac Caglianone HR· HR 1+ José Ramírez HR· HR 1+ Travis Bazzana HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brayan Rocchio HR· HR 1+ Angel Martínez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins HR· HR 1+ Steven Kwan HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
