Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox — Game center Final MLB
Sep 25 (Fri) · 11:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Colorado Rockies 30%
Chicago White Sox 70%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.519 (home 83-77) vs away 57-103 0.356, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 7, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Colorado Rockies Chicago White Sox
Pitching matchup
TS Tomoyuki Sugano Appearance confirmed
SB Sean Burke Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 63°F· wind 6 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 101· HR 106
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.250 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.263 adjusted 0.253, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.273
+2.8%p Statcast xBA
0.263 (actual 0.250)
+0.5%p Park Runs 101 / HR 106 63°F 6 mph, In From LF Chicago White Sox 9 OUT (Jake Rogers …) Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) last 15G AVG 0.273 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.242 (418PA) Statcast xBA 0.263 (actual 0.250, underrated 13p) Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago White Sox home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.5 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
80% Chicago White Sox home -1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies away +1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies away -1.5· Run Line batter77 MV Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.250 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.263 adjusted 0.253, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
71% Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 1+· hits 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Miguel Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Munetaka Murakami 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Miguel Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Colson Montgomery RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Miguel Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Munetaka Murakami Walks 1+· walks 1+ Colson Montgomery 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Colson Montgomery Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Hunter Goodman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tristan Peters RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ TJ Rumfield Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase Meidroth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Hunter Goodman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tristan Peters Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Karros Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tristan Peters 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Miguel Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake McCarthy Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sam Antonacci Hits 2+· hits 2+ TJ Rumfield Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake McCarthy 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ TJ Rumfield 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 2+· hits 2+ TJ Rumfield RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Karros 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Karros RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Tovar 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Hunter Goodman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Tovar RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Karros Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Colson Montgomery Walks 1+· walks 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tristan Peters Hits 2+· hits 2+ Miguel Vargas HR· HR 1+ Colson Montgomery HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci Walks 1+· walks 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Tovar Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake McCarthy Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tristan Peters HR· HR 1+ Chase Meidroth HR· HR 1+ TJ Rumfield HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci HR· HR 1+ games6 Chicago White Sox Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.519 (home 83-77) vs away 57-103 0.356, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 7, matchup combination model
runs 6/2 Hit
70% Chicago White Sox team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Colorado Rockies team runs Over 4.5· Runs Colorado Rockies Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.356 (away 57-103) vs home 83-77 0.519, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/7 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
