Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox — Game center Final MLB
Sep 26 (Sat) · 11:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Colorado Rockies 31%
Chicago White Sox 69%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.516 (home 83-78) vs away 58-103 0.360, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 7, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Colorado Rockies Chicago White Sox
Pitching matchup
JQ Jose Quintana Appearance confirmed
DM Davis Martin Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 64°F· wind 8 mph, L To R· park factor runs 101· HR 106
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 76%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.239 adjusted 0.333, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.346
+8.4%p Park Runs 101 / HR 106 64°F 8 mph, L To R Chicago White Sox 9 OUT (Jake Rogers …) Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) last 15G AVG 0.346 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.350 (157PA) Statcast xBA 0.239 (actual 0.276, overrated 37p) Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago White Sox home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.5 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
79% Chicago White Sox home -1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies away +1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies away -1.5· Run Line batter77 CM Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.239 adjusted 0.333, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
76% Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 1+· hits 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 1+· hits 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 1+· hits 1+ Miguel Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Munetaka Murakami RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Miguel Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase Meidroth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Colson Montgomery 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Munetaka Murakami Walks 1+· walks 1+ Munetaka Murakami 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Colson Montgomery Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase Meidroth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Munetaka Murakami Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sam Antonacci Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sam Antonacci 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tristan Peters RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Hunter Goodman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase Meidroth Walks 1+· walks 1+ TJ Rumfield Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tristan Peters 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake McCarthy Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tristan Peters Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Hunter Goodman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ TJ Rumfield Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Karros Walks 1+· walks 1+ Colson Montgomery Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake McCarthy 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ TJ Rumfield 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Tovar Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Karros 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tristan Peters Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake McCarthy RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Tovar 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ezequiel Tovar RBI 1+· RBI 1+ TJ Rumfield RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Karros RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Karros Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Hunter Goodman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery HR· HR 1+ Munetaka Murakami HR· HR 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 2+· hits 2+ Miguel Vargas HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tristan Peters Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Tovar Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake McCarthy Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase Meidroth HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters HR· HR 1+ TJ Rumfield HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci HR· HR 1+ games6 Chicago White Sox Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.516 (home 83-78) vs away 58-103 0.360, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 7, matchup combination model
runs 6/10 Miss
69% Chicago White Sox team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Colorado Rockies team runs Over 4.5· Runs Colorado Rockies Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.360 (away 58-103) vs home 83-78 0.516, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 9/7 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
