Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox — Game center Final MLB
Sep 27 (Sun) · 7:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Colorado Rockies 31%
Chicago White Sox 69%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.519 (home 84-78) vs away 58-104 0.358, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 7, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Colorado Rockies Chicago White Sox
Pitching matchup
KF Kyle Freeland Appearance confirmed
AK Anthony Kay Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 70°F· wind 6 mph, L To R· park factor runs 101· HR 106
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 76%
Model probability
stat 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.239 adjusted 0.333, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.346
+8.4%p Park Runs 101 / HR 106 70°F 6 mph, L To R Chicago White Sox 9 OUT (Jake Rogers …) Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) last 15G AVG 0.346 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.350 (157PA) Statcast xBA 0.239 (actual 0.276, overrated 37p) Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago White Sox home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.1 vs 4.5 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
79% Chicago White Sox home -1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies away +1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies away -1.5· Run Line batter77 CM Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.239 adjusted 0.333, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
stat 0/1 Miss
76% Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 1+· hits 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 1+· hits 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 1+· hits 1+ Miguel Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Miguel Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Colson Montgomery RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Colson Montgomery Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Colson Montgomery 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Miguel Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Munetaka Murakami Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase Meidroth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Munetaka Murakami Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Hunter Goodman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sam Antonacci Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake McCarthy Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ TJ Rumfield Walks 1+· walks 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sam Antonacci 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Hunter Goodman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake McCarthy 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tristan Peters RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Karros Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tristan Peters 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Karros Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ TJ Rumfield 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tristan Peters Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Karros 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Karros RBI 1+· RBI 1+ TJ Rumfield Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake McCarthy RBI 1+· RBI 1+ TJ Rumfield RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Tovar RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Tovar 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake McCarthy Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase Meidroth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Hunter Goodman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery HR· HR 1+ Munetaka Murakami HR· HR 1+ Colson Montgomery Walks 1+· walks 1+ Miguel Vargas HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci Walks 1+· walks 1+ Hunter Goodman HR· HR 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Karros Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tristan Peters Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Tovar Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake McCarthy Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase Meidroth HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters HR· HR 1+ TJ Rumfield HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci HR· HR 1+ games6 Chicago White Sox Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.519 (home 84-78) vs away 58-104 0.358, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 7, matchup combination model
runs 4/3 Hit
69% Chicago White Sox team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Colorado Rockies team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Colorado Rockies Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.358 (away 58-104) vs home 84-78 0.519, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/5 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
