Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 13 (Sun) · 4:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Colorado Rockies 37%
Detroit Tigers 63%
Locked before start
Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73% Miss Kevin McGonigle Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Hit Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69% Hit Showing 3 of 73 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.470 (home 70-79) vs away 55-94 0.369, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 7, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Colorado Rockies Detroit Tigers
Pitching matchup
GH Gabriel Hughes Appearance confirmed
JJ Jackson Jobe Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 78°F· wind 9 mph, Out To CF· park factor runs 98· HR 94
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.243 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.266 adjusted 0.253, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.193
-6.0%p Statcast xBA
0.266 (actual 0.243)
+1.0%p Park Runs 98 / HR 94 78°F 9 mph, Out To CF Detroit Tigers 12 OUT (Kerry Carpenter …) Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) last 15G AVG 0.193 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.259 (378PA) Statcast xBA 0.266 (actual 0.243, underrated 23p) Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Detroit Tigers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.2 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
75% Colorado Rockies away +1.5· Run Line Detroit Tigers home -1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies away -1.5· Run Line batter70 DD Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.243 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.266 adjusted 0.253, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
73% Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 1+· hits 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 1+· hits 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dillon Dingler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dillon Dingler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kevin McGonigle 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Riley Greene Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Hunter Goodman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Riley Greene RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dillon Dingler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kevin McGonigle Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Hunter Goodman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Spencer Torkelson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Torkelson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kevin McGonigle Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dillon Dingler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Torkelson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Riley Greene 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ TJ Rumfield Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake McCarthy Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ TJ Rumfield Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Karros Walks 1+· walks 1+ Hunter Goodman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Riley Greene Walks 1+· walks 1+ TJ Rumfield 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kevin McGonigle RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Riley Greene Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Torkelson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach McKinstry 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach McKinstry RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake McCarthy 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake McCarthy RBI 1+· RBI 1+ TJ Rumfield RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach McKinstry Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach McKinstry Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Karros 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Hunter Goodman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Karros RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Karros Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Tovar RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Tovar 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 2+· hits 2+ TJ Rumfield Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake McCarthy Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dillon Dingler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dillon Dingler HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Torkelson HR· HR 1+ Riley Greene HR· HR 1+ TJ Rumfield HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy HR· HR 1+ Kevin McGonigle HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry HR· HR 1+ games6 Detroit Tigers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.470 (home 70-79) vs away 55-94 0.369, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 7, matchup combination model
runs 8/2 Hit
63% Detroit Tigers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Colorado Rockies team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Colorado Rockies Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.369 (away 55-94) vs home 70-79 0.470, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/9 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
