Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox — Game center Final MLB
Sep 17 (Thu) · 11:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Detroit Tigers 43%
Chicago White Sox 57%
Locked before start
Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Hit Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65% Miss Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Hit Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.510 (home 78-75) vs away 72-81 0.471, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox
Pitching matchup
FV Framber Valdez Appearance confirmed
EF Erick Fedde Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Drizzle 70°F· wind 11 mph, L To R· park factor runs 101· HR 106
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.250 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.263· BvP 4/13 adjusted 0.279, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.273
+2.8%p Statcast xBA
0.263 (actual 0.250)
+0.5%p Park Runs 101 / HR 106 70°F 11 mph, L To R Chicago White Sox 9 OUT (Jake Rogers …) Detroit Tigers 12 OUT (Kerry Carpenter …) last 15G AVG 0.273 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.271 (170PA) Statcast xBA 0.263 (actual 0.250, underrated 13p) BvP career 4/13 (.308, K 2·HR 0) → weight 6% Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago White Sox home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% Detroit Tigers away +1.5· Run Line Chicago White Sox home -1.5· Run Line Detroit Tigers away -1.5· Run Line batter77 MV Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.250 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.263· BvP 4/13 adjusted 0.279, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
65% Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Walks 1+· walks 1+ Miguel Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kevin McGonigle Walks 1+· walks 1+ Miguel Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dillon Dingler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Colson Montgomery Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase Meidroth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Riley Greene Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dillon Dingler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kevin McGonigle 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Colson Montgomery RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Torkelson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Riley Greene RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Munetaka Murakami RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dillon Dingler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Torkelson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Torkelson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Miguel Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Munetaka Murakami 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Riley Greene 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Torkelson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Riley Greene Walks 1+· walks 1+ Colson Montgomery 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kevin McGonigle Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase Meidroth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach McKinstry Walks 1+· walks 1+ Colson Montgomery Walks 1+· walks 1+ Munetaka Murakami Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sam Antonacci Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kevin McGonigle RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Miguel Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tristan Peters RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tristan Peters 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tristan Peters Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase Meidroth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sam Antonacci Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tristan Peters Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dillon Dingler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sam Antonacci RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Riley Greene Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sam Antonacci 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dillon Dingler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach McKinstry 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach McKinstry Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Colson Montgomery Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sam Antonacci Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach McKinstry RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dillon Dingler HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Torkelson HR· HR 1+ Colson Montgomery HR· HR 1+ Munetaka Murakami HR· HR 1+ Miguel Vargas HR· HR 1+ Riley Greene HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kevin McGonigle HR· HR 1+ Chase Meidroth HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry HR· HR 1+ games6 Detroit Tigers team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Chicago White Sox Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.510 (home 78-75) vs away 72-81 0.471, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 3/2 Hit
57% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Chicago White Sox team runs Over 4.5· Runs Detroit Tigers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.471 (away 72-81) vs home 78-75 0.510, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/4 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
