Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox — Game center Final MLB
Sep 18 (Fri) · 11:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Detroit Tigers 42%
Chicago White Sox 58%
Locked before start
Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67% Miss Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67% Hit Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Hit Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.506 (home 78-76) vs away 73-81 0.474, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox
Pitching matchup
AS Andrew Sears Appearance confirmed
DS David Sandlin Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 71°F· wind 9 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 101· HR 106
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.239 adjusted 0.333, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.346
+8.4%p Park Runs 101 / HR 106 71°F 9 mph, In From LF Chicago White Sox 9 OUT (Jake Rogers …) Detroit Tigers 12 OUT (Kerry Carpenter …) last 15G AVG 0.346 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.350 (157PA) Statcast xBA 0.239 (actual 0.276, overrated 37p) Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago White Sox home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% Detroit Tigers away +1.5· Run Line Chicago White Sox home -1.5· Run Line Detroit Tigers away -1.5· Run Line batter77 CM Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.239 adjusted 0.333, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
67% Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Miguel Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 1+· hits 1+ Miguel Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Colson Montgomery Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Colson Montgomery RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kevin McGonigle Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dillon Dingler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dillon Dingler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kevin McGonigle 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dillon Dingler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Miguel Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Colson Montgomery 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Miguel Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Munetaka Murakami 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Riley Greene RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Riley Greene Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Spencer Torkelson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Torkelson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Riley Greene 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Riley Greene Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Torkelson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Torkelson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kevin McGonigle Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sam Antonacci Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase Meidroth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach McKinstry Walks 1+· walks 1+ Miguel Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tristan Peters Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sam Antonacci RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tristan Peters RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sam Antonacci 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kevin McGonigle RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tristan Peters 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sam Antonacci Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tristan Peters Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dillon Dingler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dillon Dingler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach McKinstry 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Riley Greene Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach McKinstry Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dillon Dingler HR· HR 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 2+· hits 2+ Miguel Vargas HR· HR 1+ Spencer Torkelson HR· HR 1+ Riley Greene HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kevin McGonigle HR· HR 1+ Chase Meidroth HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry HR· HR 1+ games6 Chicago White Sox Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.506 (home 78-76) vs away 73-81 0.474, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 8/12 Miss
58% Chicago White Sox team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Detroit Tigers team runs Over 3.5· Runs Detroit Tigers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.474 (away 73-81) vs home 78-76 0.506, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 11/9 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
