Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox — Game center Final MLB
Sep 19 (Sat) · 6:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Detroit Tigers 42%
Chicago White Sox 58%
Locked before start
Chicago White Sox home +1.5· Run Line 71% Kevin McGonigle Hits 1+· hits 1+ 59% Hit Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Hit Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.510 (home 79-76) vs away 73-82 0.471, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox
Pitching matchup
JJ Jackson Jobe Appearance confirmed
SB Sean Burke Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Overcast 69°F· wind 5 mph, Varies· park factor runs 101· HR 106
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.243 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.266· BvP 3/8 adjusted 0.259, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.193
-6.0%p Statcast xBA
0.266 (actual 0.243)
+1.0%p Park Runs 101 / HR 106 69°F 5 mph, Varies Chicago White Sox 9 OUT (Jake Rogers …) Detroit Tigers 12 OUT (Kerry Carpenter …) last 15G AVG 0.193 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.259 (378PA) Statcast xBA 0.266 (actual 0.243, underrated 23p) BvP career 3/8 (.375, K 1·HR 0) → weight 4% Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago White Sox home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% Detroit Tigers away +1.5· Run Line Chicago White Sox home -1.5· Run Line Detroit Tigers away -1.5· Run Line batter77 DD Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.243 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.266· BvP 3/8 adjusted 0.259, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
62% Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 1+· hits 1+ Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Walks 1+· walks 1+ Munetaka Murakami RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Miguel Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Miguel Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kevin McGonigle Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dillon Dingler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dillon Dingler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Miguel Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Munetaka Murakami Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kevin McGonigle 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Colson Montgomery RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Riley Greene Walks 1+· walks 1+ Riley Greene Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Riley Greene RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dillon Dingler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Torkelson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Colson Montgomery 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tristan Peters RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Torkelson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Torkelson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kevin McGonigle Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sam Antonacci 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Torkelson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase Meidroth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tristan Peters Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Riley Greene 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Colson Montgomery Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tristan Peters 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase Meidroth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Colson Montgomery Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach McKinstry Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase Meidroth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sam Antonacci Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tristan Peters Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase Meidroth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sam Antonacci RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dillon Dingler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kevin McGonigle RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach McKinstry Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dillon Dingler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Riley Greene Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami HR· HR 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 2+· hits 2+ Miguel Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach McKinstry 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tristan Peters Hits 2+· hits 2+ Miguel Vargas HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery HR· HR 1+ Dillon Dingler HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Torkelson HR· HR 1+ Riley Greene HR· HR 1+ Chase Meidroth HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters HR· HR 1+ Kevin McGonigle HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry HR· HR 1+ games6 Chicago White Sox Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.510 (home 79-76) vs away 73-82 0.471, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 3/2 Hit
58% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Chicago White Sox team runs Over 4.5· Runs Detroit Tigers team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Detroit Tigers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.471 (away 73-82) vs home 79-76 0.510, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/4 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
