Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 6:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Detroit Tigers 42%
Chicago White Sox 58%
Locked before start
Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Miss Kevin McGonigle Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Miss Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65% Hit Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.513 (home 80-76) vs away 73-83 0.468, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox
Pitching matchup
TM Troy Melton Appearance confirmed
DM Davis Martin Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Rain 65°F· wind 10 mph, L To R· park factor runs 101· HR 106
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.280 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.262· BvP 5/14 adjusted 0.298, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.316
+4.3%p Park Runs 101 / HR 106 65°F 10 mph, L To R Chicago White Sox 9 OUT (Jake Rogers …) Detroit Tigers 12 OUT (Kerry Carpenter …) last 15G AVG 0.316 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.293 (355PA) Statcast xBA 0.262 (actual 0.280, overrated 18p) BvP career 5/14 (.357, K 1·HR 0) → weight 7% Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago White Sox home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% Detroit Tigers away +1.5· Run Line Chicago White Sox home -1.5· Run Line Detroit Tigers away -1.5· Run Line batter77 RG Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.280 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.262· BvP 5/14 adjusted 0.298, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
65% Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 1+· hits 1+ Riley Greene Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dillon Dingler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kevin McGonigle 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kevin McGonigle Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kevin McGonigle Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dillon Dingler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Riley Greene RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Munetaka Murakami RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Munetaka Murakami 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Miguel Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dillon Dingler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Torkelson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Spencer Torkelson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Torkelson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Miguel Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Riley Greene 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Colson Montgomery RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Riley Greene Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Torkelson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Munetaka Murakami Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Colson Montgomery 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tristan Peters Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Colson Montgomery Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase Meidroth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach McKinstry Walks 1+· walks 1+ Riley Greene Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tristan Peters RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sam Antonacci 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kevin McGonigle RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dillon Dingler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sam Antonacci Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tristan Peters Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tristan Peters 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach McKinstry Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach McKinstry RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach McKinstry 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sam Antonacci Hits 2+· hits 2+ Miguel Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dillon Dingler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Munetaka Murakami HR· HR 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tristan Peters Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery Hits 2+· hits 2+ Miguel Vargas HR· HR 1+ Colson Montgomery HR· HR 1+ Dillon Dingler HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Torkelson HR· HR 1+ Riley Greene HR· HR 1+ Kevin McGonigle HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters HR· HR 1+ Chase Meidroth HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry HR· HR 1+ games6 Chicago White Sox Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.513 (home 80-76) vs away 73-83 0.468, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 8/2 Hit
58% Detroit Tigers team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Detroit Tigers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.468 (away 73-83) vs home 80-76 0.513, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/9 Miss
42% Chicago White Sox team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
