Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays — Game center Final MLB
Sep 14 (Mon) · 11:07 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Detroit Tigers 43%
Toronto Blue Jays 57%
Locked before start
Kevin McGonigle Hits 1+· hits 1+ 57% Hit Nathan Lukes Hits 1+· hits 1+ 56% Hit Toronto Blue Jays home +1.5· Run Line 69% Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.497 (home 75-76) vs away 71-79 0.473, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Detroit Tigers Toronto Blue Jays
Pitching matchup
TM Troy Melton Appearance confirmed
JS José Soriano Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 67°F· wind 6 mph, Out To CF· park factor runs 101· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Toronto Blue Jays home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 3.5 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
69% Detroit Tigers away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.5 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
63% Toronto Blue Jays home -1.5· Run Line Detroit Tigers away -1.5· Run Line batter77 Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 1+· hits 1+ George Springer Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nathan Lukes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ernie Clement Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kevin McGonigle Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Riley Greene Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dillon Dingler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Spencer Torkelson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kevin McGonigle 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dillon Dingler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kazuma Okamoto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kazuma Okamoto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dillon Dingler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Riley Greene RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Riley Greene Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Riley Greene 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach McKinstry Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Torkelson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Torkelson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ George Springer RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kevin McGonigle Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ George Springer Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kazuma Okamoto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Torkelson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andrés Giménez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ George Springer 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Lukes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ George Springer Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ernie Clement Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dillon Dingler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ernie Clement 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Lukes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andrés Giménez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Lukes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kevin McGonigle RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dillon Dingler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andrés Giménez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Riley Greene Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach McKinstry 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach McKinstry RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach McKinstry Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 2+· hits 2+ George Springer Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Lukes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nathan Lukes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andrés Giménez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ernie Clement Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kazuma Okamoto HR· HR 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ernie Clement RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ernie Clement Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andrés Giménez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dillon Dingler HR· HR 1+ Spencer Torkelson HR· HR 1+ Riley Greene HR· HR 1+ George Springer HR· HR 1+ Nathan Lukes HR· HR 1+ Kevin McGonigle HR· HR 1+ Andrés Giménez HR· HR 1+ Ernie Clement HR· HR 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry HR· HR 1+ games6 Toronto Blue Jays Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.497 (home 75-76) vs away 71-79 0.473, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 5/7 Miss
57% Detroit Tigers team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Detroit Tigers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.473 (away 71-79) vs home 75-76 0.497, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 6/6 Hit
43% Toronto Blue Jays team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
