Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays — Game center Final MLB
Sep 15 (Tue) · 11:07 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Detroit Tigers 44%
Toronto Blue Jays 56%
Locked before start
Nathan Lukes Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Hit Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Hit Toronto Blue Jays home +1.5· Run Line 69% Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.493 (home 75-77) vs away 72-79 0.477, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Detroit Tigers Toronto Blue Jays
Pitching matchup
DA Drew Anderson Appearance confirmed
BF Braydon Fisher Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 68°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 101· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.232 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.224 adjusted 0.225, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.235
+0.4%p Park Runs 101 / HR 103 68°F 0 mph, None Toronto Blue Jays 13 OUT (Dylan Cease …) Detroit Tigers 12 OUT (Kerry Carpenter …) last 15G AVG 0.235 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.226 (420PA) Statcast xBA 0.224 (actual 0.232, overrated 8p) Nathan Lukes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Toronto Blue Jays home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 3.5 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
69% Detroit Tigers away +1.5· Run Line Toronto Blue Jays home -1.5· Run Line Detroit Tigers away -1.5· Run Line batter77 KO Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.232 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.224 adjusted 0.225, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
64% Nathan Lukes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ George Springer Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ernie Clement Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kevin McGonigle Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kazuma Okamoto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dillon Dingler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dillon Dingler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Torkelson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Riley Greene Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kazuma Okamoto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ George Springer Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kevin McGonigle 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dillon Dingler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Riley Greene RBI 1+· RBI 1+ George Springer 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Torkelson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Riley Greene Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Spencer Torkelson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ George Springer RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ernie Clement 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ernie Clement Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Walks 1+· walks 1+ George Springer Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kevin McGonigle Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nathan Lukes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach McKinstry Walks 1+· walks 1+ Riley Greene 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Lukes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andrés Giménez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nathan Lukes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andrés Giménez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Spencer Torkelson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kevin McGonigle RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andrés Giménez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ernie Clement RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Lukes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dillon Dingler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dillon Dingler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ernie Clement Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ George Springer Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Lukes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach McKinstry 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Riley Greene Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andrés Giménez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach McKinstry RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach McKinstry Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kazuma Okamoto HR· HR 1+ Ernie Clement Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andrés Giménez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dillon Dingler HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Torkelson HR· HR 1+ George Springer HR· HR 1+ Riley Greene HR· HR 1+ Kevin McGonigle HR· HR 1+ Nathan Lukes HR· HR 1+ Andrés Giménez HR· HR 1+ Ernie Clement HR· HR 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry HR· HR 1+ games6 Toronto Blue Jays team runs Over 3.5· Runs Toronto Blue Jays Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.493 (home 75-77) vs away 72-79 0.477, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 1/11 Miss
56% Detroit Tigers team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Detroit Tigers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.477 (away 72-79) vs home 75-77 0.493, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 10/2 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
