Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays — Game center Final MLB
Sep 16 (Wed) · 7:07 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Detroit Tigers 44%
Toronto Blue Jays 56%
Locked before start
Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65% Miss Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Hit Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65% Miss Showing 3 of 86 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.497 (home 76-77) vs away 72-80 0.474, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Detroit Tigers Toronto Blue Jays
Pitching matchup
KM Keider Montero Appearance confirmed
MS Max Scherzer Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 74°F· wind 5 mph, Out To LF· park factor runs 101· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.243 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.266 adjusted 0.253, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.193
-6.0%p Statcast xBA
0.266 (actual 0.243)
+1.0%p Park Runs 101 / HR 103 74°F 5 mph, Out To LF Toronto Blue Jays 13 OUT (Dylan Cease …) Detroit Tigers 12 OUT (Kerry Carpenter …) last 15G AVG 0.193 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.259 (378PA) Statcast xBA 0.266 (actual 0.243, underrated 23p) Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Toronto Blue Jays home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 3.5 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
69% Detroit Tigers away +1.5· Run Line Toronto Blue Jays home -1.5· Run Line Detroit Tigers away -1.5· Run Line batter77 DD Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.243 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.266 adjusted 0.253, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
65% Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nathan Lukes Hits 1+· hits 1+ George Springer Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ernie Clement Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dillon Dingler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kazuma Okamoto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dillon Dingler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kevin McGonigle 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kevin McGonigle Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dillon Dingler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Riley Greene Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Riley Greene RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kazuma Okamoto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kevin McGonigle Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Spencer Torkelson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Riley Greene Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Torkelson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kazuma Okamoto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Torkelson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Torkelson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Riley Greene 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ George Springer Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ George Springer RBI 1+· RBI 1+ George Springer 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kevin McGonigle RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Lukes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nathan Lukes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ernie Clement 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach McKinstry Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andrés Giménez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ernie Clement Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ George Springer Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nathan Lukes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andrés Giménez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andrés Giménez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach McKinstry 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dillon Dingler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kazuma Okamoto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 2+· hits 2+ Riley Greene Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach McKinstry Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dillon Dingler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nathan Lukes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ernie Clement RBI 1+· RBI 1+ George Springer Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach McKinstry RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dillon Dingler HR· HR 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ernie Clement Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kazuma Okamoto HR· HR 1+ Nathan Lukes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Torkelson HR· HR 1+ Riley Greene HR· HR 1+ Ernie Clement Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andrés Giménez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kevin McGonigle HR· HR 1+ George Springer HR· HR 1+ Nathan Lukes HR· HR 1+ Andrés Giménez HR· HR 1+ Ernie Clement HR· HR 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry HR· HR 1+ games6 Detroit Tigers team runs Over 3.5· Runs Toronto Blue Jays Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.497 (home 76-77) vs away 72-80 0.474, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 5/2 Hit
56% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Toronto Blue Jays team runs Over 3.5· Runs Detroit Tigers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.474 (away 72-80) vs home 76-77 0.497, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/6 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
