Houston Astros at Athletics — Game center Final MLB
Sep 25 (Fri) · 1:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Houston Astros 56%
Athletics 44%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.497 (away 79-80) vs home 63-96 0.396, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Houston Astros Athletics
Pitching matchup
PL Peter Lambert Appearance confirmed
MB Mason Barnett Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 87°F· wind 6 mph, Out To RF· park factor runs 103· HR 104
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 78%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.316 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.318 adjusted 0.344, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.358
+5.0%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 87°F 6 mph, Out To RF Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) Houston Astros 8 OUT (Enyel De Los Santos …) last 15G AVG 0.358 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.336 (405PA) Statcast xBA 0.318 (actual 0.316, underrated 2p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 75%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.268 adjusted 0.287, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.317
+4.8%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 87°F 6 mph, Out To RF Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) Houston Astros 8 OUT (Enyel De Los Santos …) last 15G AVG 0.317 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.281 (342PA) Statcast xBA 0.268 (actual 0.277, overrated 9p) Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 YA Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.316 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.318 adjusted 0.344, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
78% JP Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.268 adjusted 0.287, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
75% Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jose Altuve Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cam Smith Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yordan Alvarez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yordan Alvarez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yordan Alvarez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Paredes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeremy Peña RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yordan Alvarez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cam Smith RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeremy Peña 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Paredes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeremy Peña Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yordan Alvarez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cam Smith 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jose Altuve RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Isaac Paredes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jose Altuve 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Paredes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cam Smith Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeremy Peña Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jose Altuve Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Lawrence Butler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jose Altuve Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cam Smith Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shea Langeliers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jose Altuve Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zack Gelof Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zack Gelof 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shea Langeliers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeff McNeil Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith Hits 2+· hits 2+ Henry Bolte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeff McNeil 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Henry Bolte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yordan Alvarez HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Henry Bolte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Lawrence Butler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeff McNeil RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zack Gelof Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker HR· HR 1+ Jeremy Peña Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeremy Peña HR· HR 1+ Isaac Paredes HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cam Smith HR· HR 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jose Altuve HR· HR 1+ Zack Gelof HR· HR 1+ Shea Langeliers HR· HR 1+ Lawrence Butler HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Houston Astros away +1.5· Run Line Athletics home +1.5· Run Line Houston Astros away -1.5· Run Line Athletics home -1.5· Run Line games6 Athletics team runs Over 3.5· Runs Houston Astros team runs Over 4.5· Runs Houston Astros Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.497 (away 79-80) vs home 63-96 0.396, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/6 Hit
56% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Athletics Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.396 (home 63-96) vs away 79-80 0.497, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 5/8 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
