Houston Astros at Athletics — Game center Final MLB
Sep 26 (Sat) · 1:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Houston Astros 56%
Athletics 44%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.494 (away 79-81) vs home 64-96 0.400, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Houston Astros Athletics
Pitching matchup
HB Hunter Brown Appearance confirmed
JL Jacob Lopez Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 77°F· wind 8 mph, Out To LF· park factor runs 103· HR 104
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 74%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.316 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.318 adjusted 0.288, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.358
+5.0%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 77°F 8 mph, Out To LF Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) Houston Astros 9 OUT (Daulton Varsho …) last 15G AVG 0.358 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.265 (162PA) Statcast xBA 0.318 (actual 0.316, underrated 2p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 74%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.268· BvP 0/9 adjusted 0.265, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.317
+4.8%p Career vs this pitcher
0/9· weight 4%
-1.5%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 77°F 8 mph, Out To LF Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) Houston Astros 9 OUT (Daulton Varsho …) last 15G AVG 0.317 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.267 (105PA) Statcast xBA 0.268 (actual 0.277, overrated 9p) BvP career 0/9 (.000, K 4·HR 0) → weight 4% Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 YA Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.316 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.318 adjusted 0.288, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
74% JP Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.268· BvP 0/9 adjusted 0.265, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
74% Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jose Altuve Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cam Smith Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 1+· hits 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yordan Alvarez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Paredes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yordan Alvarez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeremy Peña RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yordan Alvarez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yordan Alvarez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Paredes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeremy Peña Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Paredes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jose Altuve RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cam Smith RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeremy Peña 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jose Altuve Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jose Altuve 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Paredes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Lawrence Butler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Paredes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jose Altuve Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cam Smith Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Henry Bolte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shea Langeliers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shea Langeliers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zack Gelof Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shea Langeliers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Lawrence Butler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jose Altuve Walks 1+· walks 1+ Henry Bolte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeff McNeil 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeff McNeil Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zack Gelof Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Walks 1+· walks 1+ Henry Bolte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Henry Bolte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeff McNeil RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cam Smith Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yordan Alvarez HR· HR 1+ Christian Walker HR· HR 1+ Jeremy Peña Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeremy Peña HR· HR 1+ Isaac Paredes HR· HR 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Henry Bolte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cam Smith HR· HR 1+ Jose Altuve HR· HR 1+ Shea Langeliers HR· HR 1+ Zack Gelof HR· HR 1+ Lawrence Butler HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Houston Astros away +1.5· Run Line Athletics home +1.5· Run Line Houston Astros away -1.5· Run Line Athletics home -1.5· Run Line games6 Athletics team runs Over 3.5· Runs Houston Astros team runs Over 4.5· Runs Houston Astros Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.494 (away 79-81) vs home 64-96 0.400, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 5/7 Miss
56% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Athletics Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.400 (home 64-96) vs away 79-81 0.494, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 9, matchup combination model
runs 6/6 Hit
44% strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
