Houston Astros at Athletics — Game center Final MLB
Sep 27 (Sun) · 1:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Houston Astros 56%
Athletics 44%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.497 (away 80-81) vs home 64-97 0.398, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Houston Astros Athletics
Pitching matchup
HW Hayden Wesneski Appearance confirmed
JP Jack Perkins Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 79°F· wind 6 mph, Out To LF· park factor runs 103· HR 104
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 77%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.316 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.318 adjusted 0.344, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.358
+5.0%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 79°F 6 mph, Out To LF Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) Houston Astros 9 OUT (Daulton Varsho …) last 15G AVG 0.358 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.336 (405PA) Statcast xBA 0.318 (actual 0.316, underrated 2p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 74%
Model probability
hits 4/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.268 adjusted 0.287, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.317
+4.8%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 79°F 6 mph, Out To LF Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) Houston Astros 9 OUT (Daulton Varsho …) last 15G AVG 0.317 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.281 (342PA) Statcast xBA 0.268 (actual 0.277, overrated 9p) Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 YA Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.316 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.318 adjusted 0.344, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
77% JP Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.268 adjusted 0.287, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 4/1 Hit
74% Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jose Altuve Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cam Smith Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 1+· hits 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 1+· hits 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yordan Alvarez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yordan Alvarez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yordan Alvarez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeremy Peña RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yordan Alvarez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Paredes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeremy Peña Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yordan Alvarez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeremy Peña 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Isaac Paredes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Paredes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jose Altuve RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Paredes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jose Altuve 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cam Smith Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jose Altuve Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Lawrence Butler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jose Altuve Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zack Gelof Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jose Altuve Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shea Langeliers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeff McNeil Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Henry Bolte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeff McNeil 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Henry Bolte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cam Smith Hits 2+· hits 2+ Henry Bolte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shea Langeliers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Lawrence Butler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yordan Alvarez HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeff McNeil RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zack Gelof Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Walker HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeremy Peña HR· HR 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeremy Peña Walks 1+· walks 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Henry Bolte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Paredes HR· HR 1+ Cam Smith HR· HR 1+ Jose Altuve HR· HR 1+ Zack Gelof HR· HR 1+ Shea Langeliers HR· HR 1+ Lawrence Butler HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Houston Astros away +1.5· Run Line Athletics home +1.5· Run Line Houston Astros away -1.5· Run Line Athletics home -1.5· Run Line games6 Houston Astros team runs Over 4.5· Runs Houston Astros Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.497 (away 80-81) vs home 64-97 0.398, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 13/3 Hit
56% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Athletics Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.398 (home 64-97) vs away 80-81 0.497, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 9, matchup combination model
runs 2/14 Miss
44% Athletics team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
