Houston Astros at Athletics — Game center Final MLB
Sep 27 (Sun) · 7:05 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Houston Astros 57%
Athletics 43%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.500 (away 81-81) vs home 64-98 0.395, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Houston Astros Athletics
Pitching matchup
PL Peter Lambert Appearance confirmed
SJ Seth Johnson Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 66°F· wind 6 mph, Out To CF· park factor runs 103· HR 104
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 78%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.316 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.318 adjusted 0.344, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.358
+5.0%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 66°F 6 mph, Out To CF Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) Houston Astros 9 OUT (Daulton Varsho …) last 15G AVG 0.358 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.336 (405PA) Statcast xBA 0.318 (actual 0.316, underrated 2p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 76%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.268 adjusted 0.287, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.317
+4.8%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 66°F 6 mph, Out To CF Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) Houston Astros 9 OUT (Daulton Varsho …) last 15G AVG 0.317 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.281 (342PA) Statcast xBA 0.268 (actual 0.277, overrated 9p) Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 YA Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.316 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.318 adjusted 0.344, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
78% JP Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.268 adjusted 0.287, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
76% Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jose Altuve Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cam Smith Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 1+· hits 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yordan Alvarez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yordan Alvarez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yordan Alvarez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeremy Peña RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yordan Alvarez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Paredes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeremy Peña Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yordan Alvarez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cam Smith RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeremy Peña 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Isaac Paredes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Paredes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jose Altuve RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Paredes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jose Altuve 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jose Altuve Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Isaac Paredes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Lawrence Butler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jose Altuve Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cam Smith Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shea Langeliers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jose Altuve Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shea Langeliers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zack Gelof Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zack Gelof 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cam Smith Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Henry Bolte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeff McNeil Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeff McNeil 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Henry Bolte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Henry Bolte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Henry Bolte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zack Gelof Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yordan Alvarez HR· HR 1+ Jeremy Peña Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeff McNeil Hits 2+· hits 2+ Lawrence Butler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Henry Bolte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker HR· HR 1+ Jeremy Peña HR· HR 1+ Isaac Paredes HR· HR 1+ Zack Gelof HR· HR 1+ Cam Smith HR· HR 1+ Shea Langeliers HR· HR 1+ Jose Altuve HR· HR 1+ Lawrence Butler HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Houston Astros away +1.5· Run Line Athletics home +1.5· Run Line Houston Astros away -1.5· Run Line Athletics home -1.5· Run Line games6 Athletics team runs Over 3.5· Runs Houston Astros Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.500 (away 81-81) vs home 64-98 0.395, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 9/1 Hit
57% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Houston Astros team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Athletics Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.395 (home 64-98) vs away 81-81 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 9, matchup combination model
runs 0/10 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
