Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners — Game center Final MLB
Sep 23 (Wed) · 1:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Houston Astros 49%
Seattle Mariners 51%
Locked before start
Cole Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Hit Christian Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ 58% Hit Cam Smith Hits 1+· hits 1+ 51% Hit Showing 3 of 26 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.465 (home 73-84) vs away 78-79 0.497, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 8, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Houston Astros Seattle Mariners
Pitching matchup
CJ Cristian Javier Appearance confirmed
LG Logan Gilbert Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 68°F· wind 4 mph, Out To CF· park factor runs 94· HR 96
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.316 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.318 adjusted 0.344, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.358
+5.0%p Park Runs 94 / HR 96 68°F 4 mph, Out To CF Seattle Mariners 13 OUT (Michael Toglia …) Houston Astros 8 OUT (Enyel De Los Santos …) last 15G AVG 0.358 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.336 (405PA) Statcast xBA 0.318 (actual 0.316, underrated 2p) Julio Rodríguez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
games6 Houston Astros team runs Over 3.5· Runs Medium
season 4.5runs/G → park·weather·Opposing bullpen adjusted 4.0 pts, scoring distribution P(≥4)· simulation· stacking +10pp (meta-model over 414 past events)· cap applied
runs 7/4 Hit
70% Seattle Mariners team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Seattle Mariners Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.465 (home 73-84) vs away 78-79 0.497, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 0/8 Miss
51% Houston Astros Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.497 (away 78-79) vs home 73-84 0.465, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/1 Hit
49% batter84 YA Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.316 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.318 adjusted 0.344, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
67% Julio Rodríguez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cole Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Naylor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jose Altuve Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cam Smith Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yordan Alvarez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yordan Alvarez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cal Raleigh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Randy Arozarena Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dominic Canzone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Randy Arozarena 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Randy Arozarena RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Julio Rodríguez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Julio Rodríguez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dominic Canzone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cal Raleigh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeremy Peña RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Randy Arozarena Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeremy Peña Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Isaac Paredes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Paredes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cole Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cam Smith RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cal Raleigh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cole Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dominic Canzone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeremy Peña 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dominic Canzone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cole Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Isaac Paredes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Julio Rodríguez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Paredes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cam Smith 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yordan Alvarez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Naylor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jose Altuve RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cal Raleigh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Julio Rodríguez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Naylor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jose Altuve Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jose Altuve 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Naylor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cole Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cam Smith Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Naylor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Randy Arozarena Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dominic Canzone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cole Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cam Smith Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jose Altuve Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez HR· HR 1+ Josh Naylor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Paredes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jose Altuve Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cal Raleigh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker HR· HR 1+ Jeremy Peña HR· HR 1+ Isaac Paredes HR· HR 1+ Cam Smith Hits 2+· hits 2+ Randy Arozarena HR· HR 1+ Cal Raleigh HR· HR 1+ Julio Rodríguez HR· HR 1+ Dominic Canzone HR· HR 1+ Jeremy Peña Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cam Smith HR· HR 1+ Jose Altuve HR· HR 1+ Cole Young HR· HR 1+ Josh Naylor HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Houston Astros away +1.5· Run Line Seattle Mariners home +1.5· Run Line Houston Astros away -1.5· Run Line Seattle Mariners home -1.5· Run Line strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
