Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners — Game center Final MLB
Sep 24 (Thu) · 2:10 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Houston Astros 49%
Seattle Mariners 51%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.468 (home 74-84) vs away 78-80 0.494, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 8, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Houston Astros Seattle Mariners
Pitching matchup
EP Ethan Pecko Appearance confirmed
GK George Kirby Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 62°F· wind 6 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 94· HR 96
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.316 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.318· BvP 7/24 adjusted 0.340, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.358
+5.0%p Park Runs 94 / HR 96 62°F 6 mph, In From LF Seattle Mariners 13 OUT (Michael Toglia …) Houston Astros 8 OUT (Enyel De Los Santos …) last 15G AVG 0.358 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.336 (405PA) Statcast xBA 0.318 (actual 0.316, underrated 2p) BvP career 7/24 (.292, K 7·HR 1) → weight 11% Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter84 YA Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.316 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.318· BvP 7/24 adjusted 0.340, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
72% Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jose Altuve Hits 1+· hits 1+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cam Smith Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cole Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Naylor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yordan Alvarez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cal Raleigh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cal Raleigh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yordan Alvarez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yordan Alvarez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeremy Peña Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeremy Peña RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Paredes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Paredes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Isaac Paredes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeremy Peña 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dominic Canzone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cam Smith RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Randy Arozarena 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Paredes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dominic Canzone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Julio Rodríguez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cam Smith 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jose Altuve RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dominic Canzone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Julio Rodríguez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cal Raleigh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dominic Canzone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jose Altuve Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jose Altuve 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cal Raleigh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Julio Rodríguez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Julio Rodríguez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cole Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cole Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cole Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Naylor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cole Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cal Raleigh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Naylor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Naylor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jose Altuve Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cam Smith Walks 1+· walks 1+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jose Altuve Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cam Smith Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yordan Alvarez HR· HR 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Randy Arozarena Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cole Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker HR· HR 1+ Josh Naylor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cal Raleigh HR· HR 1+ Jeremy Peña HR· HR 1+ Isaac Paredes HR· HR 1+ Dominic Canzone HR· HR 1+ Jeremy Peña Walks 1+· walks 1+ Randy Arozarena HR· HR 1+ Julio Rodríguez HR· HR 1+ Cam Smith HR· HR 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cole Young HR· HR 1+ Jose Altuve HR· HR 1+ Josh Naylor HR· HR 1+ games6 Houston Astros team runs Over 3.5· Runs Medium
season 4.5runs/G → park·weather·Opposing bullpen adjusted 4.0 pts, scoring distribution P(≥4)· simulation· stacking +10pp (meta-model over 414 past events)· cap applied
runs 5/4 Hit
72% Seattle Mariners team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Seattle Mariners Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.468 (home 74-84) vs away 78-80 0.494, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 6/6 Hit
51% Houston Astros Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.494 (away 78-80) vs home 74-84 0.468, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 5/7 Miss
49% Run line4 Houston Astros away +1.5· Run Line Seattle Mariners home +1.5· Run Line Houston Astros away -1.5· Run Line Seattle Mariners home -1.5· Run Line strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
