Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays — Game center Final MLB
Sep 13 (Sun) · 5:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Houston Astros 38%
Tampa Bay Rays 62%
Locked before start
Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66% Miss Tampa Bay Rays home +1.5· Run Line 74% Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.604 (home 90-59) vs away 75-75 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 8, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Houston Astros Tampa Bay Rays
Pitching matchup
HW Hayden Wesneski Appearance confirmed
FP Freddy Peralta Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Dome 72°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 97· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.316 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.318 adjusted 0.344, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.358
+5.0%p Park Runs 97 / HR 95 72°F 0 mph, None Tampa Bay Rays 6 OUT (Shane McClanahan …) Houston Astros 8 OUT (Enyel De Los Santos …) last 15G AVG 0.358 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.336 (405PA) Statcast xBA 0.318 (actual 0.316, underrated 2p) Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Tampa Bay Rays home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
74% Houston Astros away +1.5· Run Line Tampa Bay Rays home -1.5· Run Line Houston Astros away -1.5· Run Line batter84 YA Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.316 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.318 adjusted 0.344, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
66% Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jose Altuve Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cam Smith Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yordan Alvarez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yordan Alvarez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yordan Alvarez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeremy Peña Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yandy Díaz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Junior Caminero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeremy Peña RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Paredes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeremy Peña 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Paredes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Paredes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jose Altuve RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yandy Díaz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cam Smith 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cam Smith Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Isaac Paredes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yandy Díaz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jonathan Aranda RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jonathan Aranda Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cedric Mullins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jose Altuve 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jonathan Aranda Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jose Altuve Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yordan Alvarez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cedric Mullins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cedric Mullins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jonathan Aranda 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yandy Díaz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chandler Simpson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yandy Díaz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cedric Mullins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jose Altuve Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cam Smith Walks 1+· walks 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeremy Peña Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Paredes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chandler Simpson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chandler Simpson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Walls Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yordan Alvarez HR· HR 1+ Cam Smith Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeremy Peña Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jose Altuve Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chandler Simpson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Walls 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeremy Peña HR· HR 1+ Isaac Paredes HR· HR 1+ Cam Smith HR· HR 1+ Jose Altuve HR· HR 1+ Yandy Díaz HR· HR 1+ Jonathan Aranda HR· HR 1+ Cedric Mullins HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson HR· HR 1+ games6 Tampa Bay Rays Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.604 (home 90-59) vs away 75-75 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 14/5 Hit
62% Houston Astros team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Tampa Bay Rays team runs Over 3.5· Runs Houston Astros Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.500 (away 75-75) vs home 90-59 0.604, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/15 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
