Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox — Game center Final MLB
Sep 13 (Sun) · 7:05 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Kansas City Royals 37%
Boston Red Sox 63%
Locked before start
Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67% Miss Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ 70% Hit Jarren Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67% Miss Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.547 (home 82-68) vs away 66-84 0.440, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Kansas City Royals Boston Red Sox
Pitching matchup
NC Noah Cameron Appearance confirmed
PT Payton Tolle Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 67°F· wind 2 mph, In From RF· park factor runs 108· HR 96
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 70%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.248 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.253 adjusted 0.268, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.179
-8.3%p Park Runs 108 / HR 96 67°F 2 mph, In From RF Boston Red Sox 11 OUT (Tyron Guerrero …) Kansas City Royals 12 OUT (Steven Cruz …) last 15G AVG 0.179 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.295 (190PA) Statcast xBA 0.253 (actual 0.248, underrated 5p) Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jarren Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Boston Red Sox home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
76% Kansas City Royals away +1.5· Run Line Boston Red Sox home -1.5· Run Line Kansas City Royals away -1.5· Run Line batter84 WA Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.248 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.253 adjusted 0.268, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
70% Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jarren Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Massey Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wilyer Abreu Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Willson Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jarren Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Isaac Collins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Willson Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wilyer Abreu RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 2+· hits 2+ Willson Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Caleb Durbin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jarren Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Caleb Durbin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Caleb Durbin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andruw Monasterio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andruw Monasterio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andruw Monasterio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jarren Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Salvador Perez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Caleb Durbin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Collins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jac Caglianone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Willson Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carter Jensen Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carter Jensen Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jac Caglianone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Massey Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andruw Monasterio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jarren Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Massey RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Massey 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carter Jensen RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Salvador Perez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carter Jensen 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Salvador Perez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jac Caglianone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jac Caglianone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Collins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carter Jensen Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Massey Hits 2+· hits 2+ Willson Contreras HR· HR 1+ Salvador Perez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wilyer Abreu HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Collins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran HR· HR 1+ Jac Caglianone HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carter Jensen HR· HR 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela HR· HR 1+ Salvador Perez HR· HR 1+ Caleb Durbin HR· HR 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey HR· HR 1+ Andruw Monasterio HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins HR· HR 1+ games6 Boston Red Sox Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.547 (home 82-68) vs away 66-84 0.440, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 4/2 Hit
63% Boston Red Sox team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Kansas City Royals Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.440 (away 66-84) vs home 82-68 0.547, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/5 Miss
37% Kansas City Royals team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
