Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros — Game center Final MLB
Sep 16 (Wed) · 12:10 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Kansas City Royals 40%
Houston Astros 60%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.503 (home 76-75) vs away 66-85 0.437, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Kansas City Royals Houston Astros
Pitching matchup
MW Michael Wacha Appearance confirmed
HB Hunter Brown Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 73°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 99· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 70%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.316 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.318· BvP 3/9 adjusted 0.345, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.358
+5.0%p Park Runs 99 / HR 102 73°F 0 mph, None Houston Astros 8 OUT (Enyel De Los Santos …) Kansas City Royals 12 OUT (Steven Cruz …) last 15G AVG 0.358 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.336 (405PA) Statcast xBA 0.318 (actual 0.316, underrated 2p) BvP career 3/9 (.333, K 3·HR 2) → weight 4% Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Houston Astros home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
74% Kansas City Royals away +1.5· Run Line Houston Astros home -1.5· Run Line Kansas City Royals away -1.5· Run Line batter84 YA Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.316 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.318· BvP 3/9 adjusted 0.345, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
70% Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jose Altuve Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cam Smith Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Massey Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yordan Alvarez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yordan Alvarez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yordan Alvarez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Collins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carter Jensen Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeremy Peña RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jac Caglianone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeremy Peña Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jac Caglianone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Paredes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cam Smith RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Paredes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeremy Peña 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yordan Alvarez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cam Smith 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Paredes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Paredes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jose Altuve RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carter Jensen RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carter Jensen 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jac Caglianone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Massey RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jose Altuve 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carter Jensen Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jose Altuve Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Salvador Perez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Salvador Perez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Salvador Perez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Massey Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeremy Peña Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Massey 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Collins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jac Caglianone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cam Smith Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yordan Alvarez HR· HR 1+ Jose Altuve Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jose Altuve Hits 2+· hits 2+ Salvador Perez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Massey Walks 1+· walks 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker HR· HR 1+ Cam Smith Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Massey Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carter Jensen Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeremy Peña HR· HR 1+ Isaac Paredes HR· HR 1+ Cam Smith HR· HR 1+ Carter Jensen HR· HR 1+ Jac Caglianone HR· HR 1+ Jeremy Peña Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jose Altuve HR· HR 1+ Salvador Perez HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins HR· HR 1+ games6 Houston Astros Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.503 (home 76-75) vs away 66-85 0.437, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 4/3 Hit
60% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Houston Astros team runs Over 4.5· Runs Kansas City Royals team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Kansas City Royals Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.437 (away 66-85) vs home 76-75 0.503, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/5 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
