Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros — Game center Final MLB
Sep 17 (Thu) · 12:10 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Kansas City Royals 40%
Houston Astros 60%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.500 (home 76-76) vs away 67-85 0.441, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Kansas City Royals Houston Astros
Pitching matchup
DI Daniel Lynch IV Appearance confirmed
CJ Cristian Javier Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 73°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 99· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 70%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.316 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.318 adjusted 0.288, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.358
+5.0%p Park Runs 99 / HR 102 73°F 0 mph, None Houston Astros 8 OUT (Enyel De Los Santos …) Kansas City Royals 12 OUT (Steven Cruz …) last 15G AVG 0.358 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.265 (162PA) Statcast xBA 0.318 (actual 0.316, underrated 2p) Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Houston Astros home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
74% Kansas City Royals away +1.5· Run Line Houston Astros home -1.5· Run Line Kansas City Royals away -1.5· Run Line batter84 YA Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.316 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.318 adjusted 0.288, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
70% Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jose Altuve Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cam Smith Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Massey Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yordan Alvarez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yordan Alvarez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yordan Alvarez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Collins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Paredes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeremy Peña Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jac Caglianone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeremy Peña RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cam Smith RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Paredes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Paredes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jac Caglianone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jose Altuve Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeremy Peña 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carter Jensen RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jose Altuve RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carter Jensen Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carter Jensen Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Paredes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jose Altuve 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cam Smith 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carter Jensen 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Salvador Perez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jac Caglianone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yordan Alvarez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeremy Peña Hits 2+· hits 2+ Salvador Perez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Massey RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Salvador Perez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Massey Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Isaac Paredes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jose Altuve Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Massey 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cam Smith Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jose Altuve Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 2+· hits 2+ Salvador Perez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jac Caglianone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cam Smith Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Massey Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yordan Alvarez HR· HR 1+ Christian Walker HR· HR 1+ Carter Jensen HR· HR 1+ Jeremy Peña Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeremy Peña HR· HR 1+ Jac Caglianone HR· HR 1+ Isaac Paredes HR· HR 1+ Salvador Perez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Massey Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cam Smith HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Salvador Perez HR· HR 1+ Jose Altuve HR· HR 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins HR· HR 1+ games6 Kansas City Royals team runs Over 3.5· Runs Houston Astros Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.500 (home 76-76) vs away 67-85 0.441, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 2/6 Miss
60% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Houston Astros team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Kansas City Royals Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.441 (away 67-85) vs home 76-76 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 5/3 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
