Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros — Game center Final MLB
Sep 17 (Thu) · 11:15 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Kansas City Royals 39%
Houston Astros 61%
Locked before start
Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67% Hit Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65% Hit Christian Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Miss Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.503 (home 77-76) vs away 67-86 0.438, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Kansas City Royals Houston Astros
Pitching matchup
SL Seth Lugo Appearance confirmed
MU Miguel Ullola Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 72°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 99· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.283 adjusted 0.317, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.362
+8.8%p Park Runs 99 / HR 102 72°F 0 mph, None Houston Astros 8 OUT (Enyel De Los Santos …) Kansas City Royals 12 OUT (Steven Cruz …) last 15G AVG 0.362 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.304 (349PA) Statcast xBA 0.283 (actual 0.289, overrated 6p) Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Houston Astros home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
74% Kansas City Royals away +1.5· Run Line Houston Astros home -1.5· Run Line Kansas City Royals away -1.5· Run Line batter84 JC Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.283 adjusted 0.317, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
69% Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jose Altuve Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cam Smith Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Massey Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jac Caglianone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yordan Alvarez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yordan Alvarez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jac Caglianone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yordan Alvarez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yordan Alvarez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Paredes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carter Jensen Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeremy Peña RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Paredes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cam Smith RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jose Altuve Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carter Jensen RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carter Jensen 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Salvador Perez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeremy Peña Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jose Altuve RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeremy Peña 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Paredes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cam Smith 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Collins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jac Caglianone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jose Altuve 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Salvador Perez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Salvador Perez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Paredes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carter Jensen Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yordan Alvarez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Massey RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Massey Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jose Altuve Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Massey 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cam Smith Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jose Altuve Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Collins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeremy Peña Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carter Jensen Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cam Smith Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jac Caglianone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeremy Peña Walks 1+· walks 1+ Salvador Perez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carter Jensen HR· HR 1+ Jac Caglianone HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Walker HR· HR 1+ Jeremy Peña HR· HR 1+ Cam Smith HR· HR 1+ Isaac Paredes HR· HR 1+ Salvador Perez HR· HR 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey HR· HR 1+ Jose Altuve HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins HR· HR 1+ games6 Kansas City Royals team runs Over 3.5· Runs Houston Astros Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.503 (home 77-76) vs away 67-86 0.438, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 6/3 Hit
61% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Houston Astros team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Kansas City Royals Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.438 (away 67-86) vs home 77-76 0.503, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/7 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
