Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates — Game center Final MLB
Sep 18 (Fri) · 10:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Kansas City Royals 40%
Pittsburgh Pirates 60%
Locked before start
Brandon Lowe Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71% Hit Ryan O'Hearn Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69% Miss Nick Gonzales Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.500 (home 77-77) vs away 67-87 0.435, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Kansas City Royals Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitching matchup
RD Randy Dobnak Appearance confirmed
PS Paul Skenes Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 75°F· wind 8 mph, Calm· park factor runs 98· HR 92
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.240 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.286
+3.1%p Park Runs 98 / HR 92 75°F 8 mph, Calm Pittsburgh Pirates 5 OUT (Mitch Keller …) Kansas City Royals 12 OUT (Steven Cruz …) last 15G AVG 0.286 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.279 (391PA) Statcast xBA 0.240 (actual 0.261, overrated 21p) Ryan O'Hearn Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nick Gonzales Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Pittsburgh Pirates home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.4 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
73% Kansas City Royals away +1.5· Run Line Pittsburgh Pirates home -1.5· Run Line Kansas City Royals away -1.5· Run Line batter84 BL Brandon Lowe Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.240 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
71% Ryan O'Hearn Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nick Gonzales Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Mangum Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Massey Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Lowe Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Lowe RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ryan O'Hearn RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryan Reynolds 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Lowe 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nick Gonzales Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryan Reynolds Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ryan O'Hearn 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryan Reynolds Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jac Caglianone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Lowe Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Mangum Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Spencer Horwitz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carter Jensen Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jac Caglianone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Collins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryan Reynolds RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nick Gonzales 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Horwitz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nick Gonzales RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Horwitz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Mangum 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Mangum RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nick Gonzales Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carter Jensen RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Salvador Perez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carter Jensen 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Salvador Perez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jac Caglianone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Massey RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Lowe Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carter Jensen Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 2+· hits 2+ Salvador Perez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Massey Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Spencer Horwitz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Mangum Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ryan O'Hearn Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nick Gonzales Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Massey 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Collins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Mangum Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Massey Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jac Caglianone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Massey Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Lowe HR· HR 1+ Salvador Perez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ryan O'Hearn HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jac Caglianone HR· HR 1+ Carter Jensen HR· HR 1+ Salvador Perez HR· HR 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. HR· HR 1+ Bryan Reynolds HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey HR· HR 1+ Spencer Horwitz HR· HR 1+ Nick Gonzales HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins HR· HR 1+ Jake Mangum HR· HR 1+ games6 Pittsburgh Pirates Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.500 (home 77-77) vs away 67-87 0.435, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 8/6 Hit
60% Pittsburgh Pirates team runs Over 4.5· Runs Kansas City Royals team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Kansas City Royals Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.435 (away 67-87) vs home 77-77 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 5/9 Miss
40% strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
