Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates — Game center Final MLB
Sep 19 (Sat) · 10:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Kansas City Royals 40%
Pittsburgh Pirates 60%
Locked before start
Brandon Lowe Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Hit Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Hit Bryan Reynolds Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69% Miss Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.503 (home 78-77) vs away 67-88 0.432, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Kansas City Royals Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitching matchup
NC Noah Cameron Appearance confirmed
BC Bubba Chandler Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 70°F· wind 6 mph, In From CF· park factor runs 98· HR 92
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.261 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.254 adjusted 0.260, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.220
-4.9%p Park Runs 98 / HR 92 70°F 6 mph, In From CF Pittsburgh Pirates 5 OUT (Mitch Keller …) Kansas City Royals 12 OUT (Steven Cruz …) last 15G AVG 0.220 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.276 (210PA) Statcast xBA 0.254 (actual 0.261, overrated 7p) Brandon Lowe Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nick Gonzales Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Pittsburgh Pirates home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.4 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
73% Kansas City Royals away +1.5· Run Line Pittsburgh Pirates home -1.5· Run Line Kansas City Royals away -1.5· Run Line batter84 BR Bryan Reynolds Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.261 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.254 adjusted 0.260, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
69% Brandon Lowe Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nick Gonzales Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Mangum Hits 1+· hits 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Massey Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Lowe RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryan Reynolds 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Lowe Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryan Reynolds Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Isaac Collins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Lowe 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ryan O'Hearn RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jac Caglianone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carter Jensen Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryan Reynolds RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryan Reynolds Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jac Caglianone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carter Jensen Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Spencer Horwitz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nick Gonzales Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Mangum Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Salvador Perez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ryan O'Hearn 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carter Jensen RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Horwitz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carter Jensen 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Mangum 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nick Gonzales RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jac Caglianone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Horwitz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Massey RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Salvador Perez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Mangum RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Salvador Perez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Lowe Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Lowe Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nick Gonzales 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Massey Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Collins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Massey 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Horwitz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nick Gonzales Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Mangum Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ryan O'Hearn Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nick Gonzales Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jac Caglianone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 2+· hits 2+ Salvador Perez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Collins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Massey Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Mangum Walks 1+· walks 1+ Salvador Perez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Massey Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Lowe HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carter Jensen HR· HR 1+ Ryan O'Hearn HR· HR 1+ Jac Caglianone HR· HR 1+ Salvador Perez HR· HR 1+ Bryan Reynolds HR· HR 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey HR· HR 1+ Spencer Horwitz HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins HR· HR 1+ Nick Gonzales HR· HR 1+ Jake Mangum HR· HR 1+ games6 Kansas City Royals team runs Over 3.5· Runs Pittsburgh Pirates Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.503 (home 78-77) vs away 67-88 0.432, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 6/6 Hit
60% Pittsburgh Pirates team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Kansas City Royals Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.432 (away 67-88) vs home 78-77 0.503, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 5/7 Miss
40% strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
