Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 5:35 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Kansas City Royals 39%
Pittsburgh Pirates 61%
Locked before start
Brandon Lowe Hits 1+· hits 1+ 70% Hit Ryan O'Hearn Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66% Hit Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.506 (home 79-77) vs away 67-89 0.429, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Kansas City Royals Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitching matchup
MW Michael Wacha Appearance confirmed
LB Lake Bachar Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 72°F· wind 7 mph, Out To CF· park factor runs 98· HR 92
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 70%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.240 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.286
+3.1%p Park Runs 98 / HR 92 72°F 7 mph, Out To CF Pittsburgh Pirates 5 OUT (Mitch Keller …) Kansas City Royals 12 OUT (Steven Cruz …) last 15G AVG 0.286 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.279 (391PA) Statcast xBA 0.240 (actual 0.261, overrated 21p) Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Pittsburgh Pirates home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.4 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
74% Kansas City Royals away +1.5· Run Line Pittsburgh Pirates home -1.5· Run Line Kansas City Royals away -1.5· Run Line batter84 BL Brandon Lowe Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.240 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
70% Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nick Gonzales Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Mangum Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Massey Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Lowe Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Lowe RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jac Caglianone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ryan O'Hearn RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Lowe 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jac Caglianone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryan Reynolds 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Collins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carter Jensen RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carter Jensen Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Salvador Perez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ryan O'Hearn 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryan Reynolds Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carter Jensen 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carter Jensen Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryan Reynolds Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nick Gonzales Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Lowe Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Massey RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryan Reynolds RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Horwitz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jac Caglianone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Horwitz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nick Gonzales 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Mangum 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Massey Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Salvador Perez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Salvador Perez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nick Gonzales RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Massey 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Horwitz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Mangum Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Mangum RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Collins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Horwitz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Lowe Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nick Gonzales Hits 2+· hits 2+ Salvador Perez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jac Caglianone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Massey Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ryan O'Hearn Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nick Gonzales Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Mangum Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Lowe HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Mangum Walks 1+· walks 1+ Salvador Perez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ryan O'Hearn HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carter Jensen HR· HR 1+ Jac Caglianone HR· HR 1+ Salvador Perez HR· HR 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. HR· HR 1+ Bryan Reynolds HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey HR· HR 1+ Spencer Horwitz HR· HR 1+ Nick Gonzales HR· HR 1+ Jake Mangum HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins HR· HR 1+ games6 Kansas City Royals team runs Over 3.5· Runs Pittsburgh Pirates Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.506 (home 79-77) vs away 67-89 0.429, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 4/4 Hit
61% Pittsburgh Pirates team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Kansas City Royals Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.429 (away 67-89) vs home 79-77 0.506, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/5 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
