Los Angeles Angels at Athletics — Game center Final MLB
Sep 23 (Wed) · 1:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Los Angeles Angels 45%
Athletics 55%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.395 (home 62-95) vs away 60-97 0.382, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 10, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Los Angeles Angels Athletics
Pitching matchup
YK Yusei Kikuchi Appearance confirmed
BB Brady Basso Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 79°F· wind 6 mph, Out To LF· park factor runs 103· HR 104
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 84%
Model probability
stat 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.257 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -8pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.254
+1.8%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 79°F 6 mph, Out To LF Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) Los Angeles Angels 10 OUT (Ben Joyce …) last 15G AVG 0.254 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.320 (172PA) Statcast xBA 0.257 (actual 0.240, underrated 17p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 77%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.216 adjusted 0.256, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.208
-3.7%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 79°F 6 mph, Out To LF Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) Los Angeles Angels 10 OUT (Ben Joyce …) last 15G AVG 0.208 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.285 (172PA) Statcast xBA 0.216 (actual 0.239, overrated 23p) Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter70 JA Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.257 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -8pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)
stat 0/1 Miss
84% ZN Zach Neto Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.216 adjusted 0.256, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
77% Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Hits 1+· hits 1+ Oswald Peraza Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 1+· hits 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 1+· hits 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jo Adell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jo Adell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jo Adell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mike Trout 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach Neto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vaughn Grissom RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jo Adell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mike Trout RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mike Trout Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Oswald Peraza RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shea Langeliers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zack Gelof Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shea Langeliers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Oswald Peraza 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Oswald Peraza Hits 2+· hits 2+ Lawrence Butler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mike Trout Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Lawrence Butler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach Neto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Henry Bolte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Henry Bolte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeff McNeil Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Henry Bolte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 2+· hits 2+ Henry Bolte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Lawrence Butler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeff McNeil RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof Walks 1+· walks 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Henry Bolte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vaughn Grissom Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Walks 1+· walks 1+ Oswald Peraza Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shea Langeliers HR· HR 1+ Zach Neto HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell HR· HR 1+ Zack Gelof HR· HR 1+ Mike Trout HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vaughn Grissom HR· HR 1+ Lawrence Butler HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte HR· HR 1+ Oswald Peraza HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Athletics home +1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Angels away +1.5· Run Line Athletics home -1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Angels away -1.5· Run Line games6 Los Angeles Angels team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Athletics team runs Over 4.5· Runs Athletics Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.395 (home 62-95) vs away 60-97 0.382, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 9/8 Hit
55% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Los Angeles Angels Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.382 (away 60-97) vs home 62-95 0.395, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/10 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
