Los Angeles Angels at Athletics — Game center Final MLB
Sep 24 (Thu) · 1:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Los Angeles Angels 44%
Athletics 56%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.399 (home 63-95) vs away 60-98 0.380, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 10, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Los Angeles Angels Athletics
Pitching matchup
WU Walbert Ureña Appearance confirmed
JS Jeffrey Springs Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 86°F· wind 3 mph, Calm· park factor runs 103· HR 104
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 77%
Model probability
stat 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.257· BvP 3/11 adjusted 0.313, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.254
+1.8%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 86°F 3 mph, Calm Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) Los Angeles Angels 10 OUT (Ben Joyce …) last 15G AVG 0.254 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.320 (172PA) Statcast xBA 0.257 (actual 0.240, underrated 17p) BvP career 3/11 (.273, K 6·HR 2) → weight 5% Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.216 adjusted 0.256, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.208
-3.7%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 86°F 3 mph, Calm Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) Los Angeles Angels 10 OUT (Ben Joyce …) last 15G AVG 0.208 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.285 (172PA) Statcast xBA 0.216 (actual 0.239, overrated 23p) Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter70 JA Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.257· BvP 3/11 adjusted 0.313, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
stat 0/1 Miss
77% ZN Zach Neto Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.216 adjusted 0.256, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
72% Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Oswald Peraza Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 1+· hits 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jo Adell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jo Adell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mike Trout Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach Neto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach Neto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jo Adell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mike Trout RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jo Adell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vaughn Grissom Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Lawrence Butler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mike Trout Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Oswald Peraza RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vaughn Grissom 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach Neto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Oswald Peraza 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zack Gelof RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Henry Bolte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shea Langeliers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shea Langeliers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zack Gelof Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Henry Bolte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mike Trout Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Hits 2+· hits 2+ Lawrence Butler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeff McNeil Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shea Langeliers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zack Gelof Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Henry Bolte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Lawrence Butler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Henry Bolte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeff McNeil RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach Neto HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Lawrence Butler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jo Adell HR· HR 1+ Mike Trout HR· HR 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vaughn Grissom HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shea Langeliers HR· HR 1+ Zack Gelof HR· HR 1+ Oswald Peraza HR· HR 1+ Lawrence Butler HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Athletics home +1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Angels away +1.5· Run Line Athletics home -1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Angels away -1.5· Run Line games6 Los Angeles Angels team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Athletics Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.399 (home 63-95) vs away 60-98 0.380, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 7/4 Hit
56% Athletics team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Los Angeles Angels Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.380 (away 60-98) vs home 63-95 0.399, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/8 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
