Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners — Game center Final MLB
Sep 25 (Fri) · 1:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Los Angeles Angels 38%
Seattle Mariners 62%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.465 (home 74-85) vs away 61-98 0.384, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 10, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Los Angeles Angels Seattle Mariners
Pitching matchup
GR Grayson Rodriguez Appearance confirmed
BW Bryan Woo Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 57°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 94· HR 96
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.247 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.264 adjusted 0.280, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.317
+8.4%p Statcast xBA
0.264 (actual 0.247)
+0.7%p Park Runs 94 / HR 96 57°F 0 mph, None Seattle Mariners 13 OUT (Michael Toglia …) Los Angeles Angels 10 OUT (Ben Joyce …) last 15G AVG 0.317 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.259 (410PA) Statcast xBA 0.264 (actual 0.247, underrated 17p) Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Seattle Mariners home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.5 vs 3.6 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
75% Los Angeles Angels away +1.5· Run Line Seattle Mariners home -1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Angels away -1.5· Run Line batter77 JR Julio Rodríguez Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.247 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.264 adjusted 0.280, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
67% Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cole Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Naylor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zach Neto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Oswald Peraza Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cal Raleigh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mike Trout Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dominic Canzone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Julio Rodríguez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dominic Canzone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena Walks 1+· walks 1+ Randy Arozarena 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Randy Arozarena RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Julio Rodríguez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Randy Arozarena Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cal Raleigh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dominic Canzone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dominic Canzone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cole Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cole Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Julio Rodríguez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cole Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cal Raleigh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Naylor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach Neto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Julio Rodríguez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Naylor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach Neto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jo Adell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jo Adell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mike Trout 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach Neto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mike Trout Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cal Raleigh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vaughn Grissom Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cole Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Randy Arozarena Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jo Adell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Oswald Peraza Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vaughn Grissom 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cole Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Naylor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Oswald Peraza 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jo Adell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vaughn Grissom Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach Neto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mike Trout Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cal Raleigh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dominic Canzone HR· HR 1+ Cal Raleigh HR· HR 1+ Randy Arozarena HR· HR 1+ Julio Rodríguez HR· HR 1+ Zach Neto HR· HR 1+ Cole Young HR· HR 1+ Mike Trout HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell HR· HR 1+ Oswald Peraza Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vaughn Grissom HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Oswald Peraza HR· HR 1+ Josh Naylor HR· HR 1+ games6 Seattle Mariners Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.465 (home 74-85) vs away 61-98 0.384, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 4/7 Miss
62% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Seattle Mariners team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Los Angeles Angels team runs Over 3.5· Runs Los Angeles Angels Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.384 (away 61-98) vs home 74-85 0.465, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 6/5 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
