Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners — Game center Final MLB
Sep 26 (Sat) · 2:10 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Los Angeles Angels 39%
Seattle Mariners 61%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.463 (home 74-86) vs away 62-98 0.388, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 10, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Los Angeles Angels Seattle Mariners
Pitching matchup
RD Reid Detmers Appearance confirmed
BM Bryce Miller Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 57°F· wind 5 mph, In From CF· park factor runs 94· HR 96
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.281 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258· BvP 4/11 adjusted 0.315, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.362
+9.7%p Park Runs 94 / HR 96 57°F 5 mph, In From CF Seattle Mariners 12 OUT (Andres Munoz …) Los Angeles Angels 10 OUT (Ben Joyce …) last 15G AVG 0.362 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.306 (170PA) Statcast xBA 0.258 (actual 0.281, overrated 23p) BvP career 4/11 (.364, K 3·HR 0) → weight 5% Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Seattle Mariners home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.5 vs 3.6 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
75% Los Angeles Angels away +1.5· Run Line Seattle Mariners home -1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Angels away -1.5· Run Line batter77 RA Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.281 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258· BvP 4/11 adjusted 0.315, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
61% Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Naylor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zach Neto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cole Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Oswald Peraza Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cal Raleigh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jo Adell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach Neto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Randy Arozarena Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach Neto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dominic Canzone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dominic Canzone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jo Adell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Randy Arozarena Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach Neto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Randy Arozarena RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mike Trout Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cal Raleigh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dominic Canzone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Julio Rodríguez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Julio Rodríguez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jo Adell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Naylor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cal Raleigh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cole Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vaughn Grissom 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Julio Rodríguez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cole Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Naylor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Oswald Peraza Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dominic Canzone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Oswald Peraza 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Oswald Peraza RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cole Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cal Raleigh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Naylor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vaughn Grissom Walks 1+· walks 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 2+· hits 2+ Julio Rodríguez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cole Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jo Adell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dominic Canzone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Naylor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach Neto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 2+· hits 2+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mike Trout Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cole Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach Neto HR· HR 1+ Mike Trout HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell HR· HR 1+ Oswald Peraza Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Randy Arozarena HR· HR 1+ Cal Raleigh HR· HR 1+ Dominic Canzone HR· HR 1+ Vaughn Grissom HR· HR 1+ Julio Rodríguez HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cole Young HR· HR 1+ Oswald Peraza HR· HR 1+ Josh Naylor HR· HR 1+ games6 Seattle Mariners Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.463 (home 74-86) vs away 62-98 0.388, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 5/8 Miss
61% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Los Angeles Angels team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Los Angeles Angels Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.388 (away 62-98) vs home 74-86 0.463, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/6 Hit
39% Seattle Mariners team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
