Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners — Game center Final MLB
Sep 27 (Sun) · 1:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Los Angeles Angels 38%
Seattle Mariners 62%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.466 (home 75-86) vs away 62-99 0.385, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 10, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Los Angeles Angels Seattle Mariners
Pitching matchup
RJ Ryan Johnson Appearance confirmed
KA Kade Anderson Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 58°F· wind 7 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 94· HR 96
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Model probability
stat 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.257 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.254
+1.8%p Park Runs 94 / HR 96 58°F 7 mph, In From LF Seattle Mariners 12 OUT (Andres Munoz …) Los Angeles Angels 10 OUT (Ben Joyce …) last 15G AVG 0.254 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.320 (172PA) Statcast xBA 0.257 (actual 0.240, underrated 17p) Julio Rodríguez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Seattle Mariners home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.5 vs 3.6 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
75% Los Angeles Angels away +1.5· Run Line Seattle Mariners home -1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Angels away -1.5· Run Line batter77 JA Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.257 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
stat 0/1 Miss
69% Julio Rodríguez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zach Neto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Naylor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cole Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Oswald Peraza Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cal Raleigh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jo Adell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dominic Canzone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jo Adell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Julio Rodríguez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dominic Canzone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach Neto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cal Raleigh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Randy Arozarena RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Julio Rodríguez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Randy Arozarena Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dominic Canzone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mike Trout 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dominic Canzone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach Neto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Julio Rodríguez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cal Raleigh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mike Trout Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vaughn Grissom RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cole Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cole Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jo Adell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jo Adell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cole Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Naylor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Julio Rodríguez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cal Raleigh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Oswald Peraza RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cole Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Oswald Peraza Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Naylor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach Neto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Randy Arozarena Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dominic Canzone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mike Trout Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vaughn Grissom Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cole Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Naylor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cal Raleigh HR· HR 1+ Dominic Canzone HR· HR 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Randy Arozarena HR· HR 1+ Zach Neto HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell HR· HR 1+ Julio Rodríguez HR· HR 1+ Oswald Peraza Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mike Trout HR· HR 1+ Cole Young HR· HR 1+ Vaughn Grissom HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Naylor HR· HR 1+ Oswald Peraza HR· HR 1+ games6 Seattle Mariners Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.466 (home 75-86) vs away 62-99 0.385, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 8/5 Hit
62% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Seattle Mariners team runs Over 3.5· Runs Los Angeles Angels team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Los Angeles Angels Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.385 (away 62-99) vs home 75-86 0.466, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/9 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
