Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners — Game center Final MLB
Sep 27 (Sun) · 7:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Los Angeles Angels 37%
Seattle Mariners 63%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.469 (home 76-86) vs away 62-100 0.383, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 10, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Los Angeles Angels Seattle Mariners
Pitching matchup
YK Yusei Kikuchi Appearance confirmed
LG Logan Gilbert Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Sunny 59°F· wind 11 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 94· HR 96
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.281 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258· BvP 3/15 adjusted 0.304, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.362
+9.7%p Park Runs 94 / HR 96 59°F 11 mph, In From LF Seattle Mariners 12 OUT (Andres Munoz …) Los Angeles Angels 10 OUT (Ben Joyce …) last 15G AVG 0.362 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.306 (170PA) Statcast xBA 0.258 (actual 0.281, overrated 23p) BvP career 3/15 (.200, K 7·HR 2) → weight 7% Josh Naylor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Seattle Mariners home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.4 vs 3.5 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
75% Los Angeles Angels away +1.5· Run Line Seattle Mariners home -1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Angels away -1.5· Run Line batter77 RA Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.281 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258· BvP 3/15 adjusted 0.304, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
66% Josh Naylor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cole Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zach Neto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Hits 1+· hits 1+ Oswald Peraza Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cal Raleigh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Randy Arozarena Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dominic Canzone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dominic Canzone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Randy Arozarena 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Randy Arozarena Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Julio Rodríguez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dominic Canzone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Julio Rodríguez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dominic Canzone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach Neto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cal Raleigh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mike Trout 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cole Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Naylor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach Neto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jo Adell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Julio Rodríguez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cal Raleigh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vaughn Grissom RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cole Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mike Trout Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jo Adell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach Neto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cole Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Julio Rodríguez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cole Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Naylor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jo Adell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vaughn Grissom 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Naylor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cal Raleigh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dominic Canzone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Oswald Peraza 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Oswald Peraza RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cole Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vaughn Grissom Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jo Adell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mike Trout Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach Neto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cal Raleigh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach Neto HR· HR 1+ Mike Trout HR· HR 1+ Randy Arozarena HR· HR 1+ Dominic Canzone HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell HR· HR 1+ Cal Raleigh HR· HR 1+ Vaughn Grissom HR· HR 1+ Julio Rodríguez HR· HR 1+ Cole Young HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Oswald Peraza HR· HR 1+ Josh Naylor HR· HR 1+ games6 Seattle Mariners Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.469 (home 76-86) vs away 62-100 0.383, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 7/4 Hit
63% Seattle Mariners team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 6.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 6.5· Totals Los Angeles Angels team runs Over 3.5· Runs Los Angeles Angels Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.383 (away 62-100) vs home 76-86 0.469, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/8 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
