Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals — Game center Final MLB
Sep 13 (Sun) · 5:35 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Los Angeles Angels 38%
Washington Nationals 62%
Locked before start
CJ Abrams Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Hit James Wood Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67% Hit Daylen Lile Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69% Hit Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.464 (home 70-81) vs away 56-93 0.376, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 10, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Los Angeles Angels Washington Nationals
Pitching matchup
GR Grayson Rodriguez Appearance confirmed
RC Riley Cornelio Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 84°F· wind 8 mph, Out To RF· park factor runs 100· HR 101
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Locked at publish
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.246 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.255 adjusted 0.242, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.192
-6.5%p Park Runs 100 / HR 101 84°F 8 mph, Out To RF Washington Nationals 6 OUT (Matt Waldron …) Los Angeles Angels 10 OUT (Ben Joyce …) last 15G AVG 0.192 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.252 (437PA) Statcast xBA 0.255 (actual 0.246, underrated 9p) Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ CJ Abrams Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Washington Nationals home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.8 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
75% Los Angeles Angels away +1.5· Run Line Washington Nationals home -1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Angels away -1.5· Run Line batter77 DL Daylen Lile Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.246 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.255 adjusted 0.242, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
69% Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ CJ Abrams Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zach Neto Hits 1+· hits 1+ James Wood Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jacob Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Oswald Peraza Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dylan Crews Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Walks 1+· walks 1+ James Wood Walks 1+· walks 1+ CJ Abrams Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach Neto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Daylen Lile Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ CJ Abrams 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ CJ Abrams RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mike Trout 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ James Wood RBI 1+· RBI 1+ James Wood Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach Neto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Daylen Lile 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jo Adell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ James Wood 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach Neto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mike Trout RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jo Adell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vaughn Grissom RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Daylen Lile RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jacob Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jo Adell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jacob Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jacob Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nasim Nuñez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach Neto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dylan Crews RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dylan Crews 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Oswald Peraza RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Oswald Peraza 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Oswald Peraza Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Daylen Lile Hits 2+· hits 2+ CJ Abrams Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dylan Crews Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jo Adell Hits 2+· hits 2+ CJ Abrams Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nasim Nuñez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach Neto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 2+· hits 2+ James Wood Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vaughn Grissom Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mike Trout Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jacob Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Daylen Lile Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dylan Crews Walks 1+· walks 1+ Oswald Peraza Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jacob Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dylan Crews Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ CJ Abrams HR· HR 1+ Oswald Peraza Walks 1+· walks 1+ James Wood HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach Neto HR· HR 1+ Mike Trout HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell HR· HR 1+ Daylen Lile HR· HR 1+ Vaughn Grissom HR· HR 1+ Dylan Crews HR· HR 1+ Jacob Young HR· HR 1+ Oswald Peraza HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez HR· HR 1+ games6 Los Angeles Angels team runs Over 3.5· Runs Washington Nationals team runs Over 4.5· Runs Washington Nationals Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.464 (home 70-81) vs away 56-93 0.376, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 6/6 Hit
62% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Los Angeles Angels Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.376 (away 56-93) vs home 70-81 0.464, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 5/7 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
