Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves — Game center Final MLB
Oct 7 (Wed) · 10:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Los Angeles Dodgers 77%
Atlanta Braves 23%
Locked before start
Los Angeles Dodgers away +1.5· Run Line 85% Los Angeles Dodgers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win 77% Hit Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ 58% Miss Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.750 (away 3-1) vs home 1-3 0.250, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Los Angeles Dodgers Atlanta Braves
Pitching matchup
TG Tyler Glasnow Appearance confirmed
TM Tyler Mahle Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 79°F· wind 3 mph, Varies· park factor runs 101· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.288 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290· BvP 6/11 adjusted 0.295, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.180
-13.0%p Park Runs 101 / HR 102 79°F 3 mph, Varies Atlanta Braves 9 OUT (Martin Perez …) Los Angeles Dodgers 7 OUT (Blake Treinen …) last 15G AVG 0.180 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.307 (381PA) Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.288, underrated 2p) BvP career 6/11 (.545, K 2·HR 0) → weight 5% Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Los Angeles Dodgers away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
85% Los Angeles Dodgers away -1.5· Run Line Atlanta Braves home +1.5· Run Line Atlanta Braves home -1.5· Run Line games6 Los Angeles Dodgers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.750 (away 3-1) vs home 1-3 0.250, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/2 Hit
77% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Atlanta Braves team runs Over 3.5· Runs Los Angeles Dodgers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Atlanta Braves Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.250 (home 1-3) vs away 3-1 0.750, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 7, matchup combination model
runs 1/5 Miss
23% batter77 FF Freddie Freeman Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.288 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290· BvP 6/11 adjusted 0.295, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
61% Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Tucker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Austin Riley Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Tucker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mookie Betts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Matt Olson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shohei Ohtani 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shohei Ohtani RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shohei Ohtani Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Freddie Freeman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mookie Betts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Tucker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Freddie Freeman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mookie Betts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andy Pages 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Harris II Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andy Pages Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Matt Olson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Tucker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Drake Baldwin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mookie Betts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Tucker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Freddie Freeman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies Walks 1+· walks 1+ Drake Baldwin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Harris II RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Drake Baldwin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Harris II 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Austin Riley Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mauricio Dubón Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ozzie Albies 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mookie Betts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Austin Riley Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Tucker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt Olson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Drake Baldwin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shohei Ohtani HR· HR 1+ Matt Olson HR· HR 1+ Mookie Betts HR· HR 1+ Michael Harris II Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages HR· HR 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Harris II HR· HR 1+ Drake Baldwin HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Tucker HR· HR 1+ Ozzie Albies HR· HR 1+ Freddie Freeman HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
