Great American Ball ParkSep 14 (Mon) · 10:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Pregame forecast
Los Angeles Dodgers58%
Cincinnati Reds42%
Locked before start
Mookie BettsHits 1+· hits 1+74%Miss
Kyle TuckerHits 1+· hits 1+70%Hit
Freddie FreemanHits 1+· hits 1+73%Miss
Showing 3 of 73 locked markets
Behind the probability
season win% 0.607 (away 91-59) vs home 70-80 0.467, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head
Los Angeles DodgersCincinnati Reds
Pitching matchup
TSTarik SkubalAppearance confirmed
NLNick LodoloAppearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
AwayLLWWW
HomeWLLLL
Clear 77°F· wind 6 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 104· HR 116
Season AVG 0.274 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.274 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.308
+4.1%p
Season AVG
0.274
+2.4%p
vs LHP
AVG 0.293 (147PA)
+2.4%p
Park Runs 104 / HR 116
77°F 6 mph, In From LF
Cincinnati Reds 7 OUT (Dane Myers …)
Los Angeles Dodgers 7 OUT (Blake Treinen …)
last 15G AVG 0.308 ↑
vs LHP AVG 0.293 (147PA)
Statcast xBA 0.274 (actual 0.274, underrated 0p)
MB
Mookie Betts
batter
Hits 1+· hits 1+74%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1MissView model reasoning
Season AVG 0.257 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.278· BvP 1/10 adjusted 0.264, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
