Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds — Game center Final MLB
Sep 15 (Tue) · 10:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Los Angeles Dodgers 58%
Cincinnati Reds 42%
Locked before start
Freddie Freeman Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72% Hit Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ 75% Miss Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65% Miss Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.609 (away 92-59) vs home 70-81 0.464, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Los Angeles Dodgers Cincinnati Reds
Pitching matchup
YY Yoshinobu Yamamoto Appearance confirmed
RL Rhett Lowder Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 89°F· wind 6 mph, In From RF· park factor runs 104· HR 116
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 75%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.257 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.278 adjusted 0.281, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.316
+7.1%p Statcast xBA
0.278 (actual 0.257)
+0.9%p Park Runs 104 / HR 116 89°F 6 mph, In From RF Cincinnati Reds 7 OUT (Dane Myers …) Los Angeles Dodgers 7 OUT (Blake Treinen …) last 15G AVG 0.316 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.261 (326PA) Statcast xBA 0.278 (actual 0.257, underrated 21p) Freddie Freeman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Tucker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 MB Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.257 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.278 adjusted 0.281, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
75% Freddie Freeman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Tucker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ Elly De La Cruz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mookie Betts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sal Stewart Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mookie Betts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Freddie Freeman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Tucker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Freddie Freeman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mookie Betts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Bleday Hits 1+· hits 1+ Eugenio Suárez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shohei Ohtani Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tyler Stephenson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Tucker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andy Pages RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shohei Ohtani RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Tucker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Freddie Freeman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Freddie Freeman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Tucker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shohei Ohtani Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt McLain Hits 1+· hits 1+ Freddie Freeman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Tucker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Eugenio Suárez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mookie Betts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Elly De La Cruz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sal Stewart Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ JJ Bleday Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sal Stewart 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Elly De La Cruz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Bleday Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Eugenio Suárez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Eugenio Suárez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Elly De La Cruz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sal Stewart Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tyler Stephenson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt McLain Walks 1+· walks 1+ JJ Bleday RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tyler Stephenson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Elly De La Cruz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sal Stewart RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Eugenio Suárez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Bleday 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt McLain Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shohei Ohtani HR· HR 1+ Tyler Stephenson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Elly De La Cruz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sal Stewart Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tyler Stephenson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mookie Betts HR· HR 1+ Matt McLain 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt McLain RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andy Pages HR· HR 1+ Eugenio Suárez HR· HR 1+ Sal Stewart HR· HR 1+ Eugenio Suárez Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Bleday HR· HR 1+ JJ Bleday Hits 2+· hits 2+ Elly De La Cruz HR· HR 1+ Freddie Freeman HR· HR 1+ Tyler Stephenson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Tucker HR· HR 1+ Matt McLain Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tyler Stephenson HR· HR 1+ Matt McLain HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Los Angeles Dodgers away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.8 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
74% Cincinnati Reds home +1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Dodgers away -1.5· Run Line Cincinnati Reds home -1.5· Run Line games6 Los Angeles Dodgers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Los Angeles Dodgers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.609 (away 92-59) vs home 70-81 0.464, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/1 Hit
58% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Cincinnati Reds Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.464 (home 70-81) vs away 92-59 0.609, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 7, matchup combination model
runs 0/5 Miss
42% Cincinnati Reds team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
