Great American Ball ParkSep 17 (Thu) · 4:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Pregame forecast
Los Angeles Dodgers58%
Cincinnati Reds42%
Locked before start
Andy PagesHits 1+· hits 1+73%Miss
Freddie FreemanHits 1+· hits 1+74%Hit
Mookie BettsHits 1+· hits 1+72%Miss
Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability
season win% 0.608 (away 93-60) vs home 71-82 0.464, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head
Los Angeles DodgersCincinnati Reds
Pitching matchup
JWJustin WrobleskiAppearance confirmed
BSBrady SingerAppearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
AwayLWWLL
HomeWLLWL
Partly Cloudy 90°F· wind 7 mph, Out To LF· park factor runs 104· HR 116
Season AVG 0.288 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290· BvP 3/9 adjusted 0.282, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.180
-13.0%p
Season AVG
0.288
+3.8%p
vs RHP
AVG 0.307 (381PA)
+2.8%p
Park Runs 104 / HR 116
90°F 7 mph, Out To LF
Cincinnati Reds 7 OUT (Dane Myers …)
Los Angeles Dodgers 7 OUT (Blake Treinen …)
last 15G AVG 0.180 ↓
vs RHP AVG 0.307 (381PA)
Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.288, underrated 2p)
BvP career 3/9 (.333, K 2·HR 1) → weight 4%
AP
Andy Pages
batter
Hits 1+· hits 1+73%
Locked at publish
stat 0/1MissView model reasoning
Season AVG 0.274 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.274 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
