Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins — Game center Final MLB
Sep 13 (Sun) · 5:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Los Angeles Dodgers 59%
Miami Marlins 41%
Locked before start
Los Angeles Dodgers away +1.5· Run Line 73% Otto Lopez Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67% Hit Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65% Hit Showing 3 of 80 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.604 (away 90-59) vs home 74-76 0.493, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Los Angeles Dodgers Miami Marlins
Pitching matchup
ES Emmet Sheehan Appearance confirmed
EP Eury Pérez Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 72°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 96· HR 92
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.305 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.281 adjusted 0.294, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.339
+4.1%p Park Runs 96 / HR 92 72°F 0 mph, None Miami Marlins 11 OUT (Robby Snelling …) Los Angeles Dodgers 7 OUT (Blake Treinen …) last 15G AVG 0.339 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.293 (468PA) Statcast xBA 0.281 (actual 0.305, overrated 24p) Javier Sanoja Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Los Angeles Dodgers away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.4 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
73% Miami Marlins home +1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Dodgers away -1.5· Run Line Miami Marlins home -1.5· Run Line batter70 OL Otto Lopez Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.305 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.281 adjusted 0.294, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
67% Javier Sanoja Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Freddie Freeman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Tucker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Stowers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Otto Lopez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shohei Ohtani Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mookie Betts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Javier Sanoja Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Heriberto Hernández RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shohei Ohtani RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shohei Ohtani 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Freddie Freeman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Freddie Freeman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Tucker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mookie Betts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shohei Ohtani Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Heriberto Hernández Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Tucker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andy Pages RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Stowers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andy Pages 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Heriberto Hernández 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mookie Betts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xavier Edwards Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Stowers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Otto Lopez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Freddie Freeman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Javier Sanoja RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Stowers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Tucker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xavier Edwards 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Javier Sanoja 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Tucker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xavier Edwards Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mookie Betts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages Walks 1+· walks 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Javier Sanoja Hits 2+· hits 2+ Freddie Freeman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Stowers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Otto Lopez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andy Pages Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xavier Edwards RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 2+· hits 2+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Tucker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Otto Lopez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Stowers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Javier Sanoja Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández HR· HR 1+ Shohei Ohtani HR· HR 1+ Kyle Stowers HR· HR 1+ Mookie Betts HR· HR 1+ Andy Pages HR· HR 1+ Freddie Freeman HR· HR 1+ Kyle Tucker HR· HR 1+ Javier Sanoja HR· HR 1+ Otto Lopez HR· HR 1+ Xavier Edwards HR· HR 1+ games6 Los Angeles Dodgers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.604 (away 90-59) vs home 74-76 0.493, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/7 Miss
59% Miami Marlins team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Los Angeles Dodgers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Miami Marlins Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.493 (home 74-76) vs away 90-59 0.604, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 7, matchup combination model
runs 6/5 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
