Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants — Game center Final MLB
Sep 26 (Sat) · 2:15 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Los Angeles Dodgers 66%
San Francisco Giants 34%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.613 (away 98-62) vs home 65-95 0.406, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Los Angeles Dodgers San Francisco Giants
Pitching matchup
TS Tarik Skubal Appearance confirmed
YM Yunior Marte Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 63°F· wind 11 mph, Out To CF· park factor runs 95· HR 88
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.274 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.274 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.308
+4.1%p Park Runs 95 / HR 88 63°F 11 mph, Out To CF San Francisco Giants 22 OUT (Keaton Winn …) Los Angeles Dodgers 7 OUT (Blake Treinen …) last 15G AVG 0.308 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.266 (364PA) Statcast xBA 0.274 (actual 0.274, underrated 0p) Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+ Freddie Freeman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Los Angeles Dodgers away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.5 vs 4.5 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
79% Los Angeles Dodgers away -1.5· Run Line San Francisco Giants home +1.5· Run Line San Francisco Giants home -1.5· Run Line batter49 AP Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.274 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.274 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
67% Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+ Freddie Freeman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Tucker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mookie Betts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shohei Ohtani RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shohei Ohtani 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shohei Ohtani Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Tucker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Freddie Freeman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shohei Ohtani Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Tucker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mookie Betts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Freddie Freeman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mookie Betts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Tucker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Tucker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andy Pages Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mookie Betts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Freddie Freeman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andy Pages Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luis Arraez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jung Hoo Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mookie Betts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luis Arraez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jung Hoo Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Luis Arraez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jung Hoo Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Tucker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shohei Ohtani HR· HR 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mookie Betts HR· HR 1+ Andy Pages HR· HR 1+ Luis Arraez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Freddie Freeman HR· HR 1+ Kyle Tucker HR· HR 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jung Hoo Lee HR· HR 1+ Luis Arraez HR· HR 1+ games6 Los Angeles Dodgers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.613 (away 98-62) vs home 65-95 0.406, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/1 Hit
66% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Los Angeles Dodgers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals San Francisco Giants Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.406 (home 65-95) vs away 98-62 0.613, Home advantage +4%· injury home 22 / away 7, matchup combination model
runs 0/3 Miss
34% San Francisco Giants team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
