Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants — Game center Final MLB
Sep 26 (Sat) · 8:05 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Los Angeles Dodgers 67%
San Francisco Giants 33%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.615 (away 99-62) vs home 65-96 0.404, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Los Angeles Dodgers San Francisco Giants
Pitching matchup
BS Blake Snell Appearance confirmed
MW Matt Wilkinson Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Sunny 63°F· wind 7 mph, Out To CF· park factor runs 95· HR 88
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.274 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.274 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.308
+4.1%p Park Runs 95 / HR 88 63°F 7 mph, Out To CF San Francisco Giants 22 OUT (Keaton Winn …) Los Angeles Dodgers 7 OUT (Blake Treinen …) last 15G AVG 0.308 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.293 (147PA) Statcast xBA 0.274 (actual 0.274, underrated 0p) Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Los Angeles Dodgers away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.4 vs 4.4 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
79% San Francisco Giants home +1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Dodgers away -1.5· Run Line San Francisco Giants home -1.5· Run Line games6 Los Angeles Dodgers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.615 (away 99-62) vs home 65-96 0.404, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/4 Hit
67% Los Angeles Dodgers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals San Francisco Giants Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.404 (home 65-96) vs away 99-62 0.615, Home advantage +4%· injury home 22 / away 7, matchup combination model
runs 3/5 Miss
33% San Francisco Giants team runs Over 3.5· Runs batter49 AP Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.274 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.274 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
64% Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Tucker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Freddie Freeman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shohei Ohtani 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shohei Ohtani Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shohei Ohtani Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mookie Betts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Tucker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Tucker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mookie Betts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mookie Betts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Tucker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Tucker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luis Arraez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jung Hoo Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Luis Arraez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mookie Betts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luis Arraez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luis Arraez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jung Hoo Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Tucker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Freddie Freeman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shohei Ohtani HR· HR 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andy Pages HR· HR 1+ Mookie Betts HR· HR 1+ Kyle Tucker HR· HR 1+ Freddie Freeman HR· HR 1+ Jung Hoo Lee HR· HR 1+ Luis Arraez HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
