Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants — Game center Final MLB
Sep 27 (Sun) · 7:05 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Los Angeles Dodgers 67%
San Francisco Giants 33%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.617 (away 100-62) vs home 65-97 0.401, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Los Angeles Dodgers San Francisco Giants
Pitching matchup
JD Jack Dreyer Appearance confirmed
CS Carson Seymour Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 61°F· wind 8 mph, Out To CF· park factor runs 95· HR 88
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.288 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.279, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.180
-13.0%p Park Runs 95 / HR 88 61°F 8 mph, Out To CF San Francisco Giants 22 OUT (Keaton Winn …) Los Angeles Dodgers 7 OUT (Blake Treinen …) last 15G AVG 0.180 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.307 (381PA) Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.288, underrated 2p) Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Los Angeles Dodgers away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.5 vs 4.5 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
79% Los Angeles Dodgers away -1.5· Run Line San Francisco Giants home +1.5· Run Line San Francisco Giants home -1.5· Run Line batter49 FF Freddie Freeman Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.288 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.279, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
67% Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Tucker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shohei Ohtani Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shohei Ohtani 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mookie Betts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Tucker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Tucker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Freddie Freeman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Freddie Freeman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mookie Betts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shohei Ohtani Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andy Pages Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mookie Betts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Tucker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Tucker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andy Pages Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mookie Betts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Freddie Freeman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mookie Betts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andy Pages Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luis Arraez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jung Hoo Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jung Hoo Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Luis Arraez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jung Hoo Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Tucker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luis Arraez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luis Arraez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jung Hoo Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shohei Ohtani HR· HR 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mookie Betts HR· HR 1+ Andy Pages HR· HR 1+ Freddie Freeman HR· HR 1+ Kyle Tucker HR· HR 1+ Jung Hoo Lee HR· HR 1+ Luis Arraez HR· HR 1+ games6 Los Angeles Dodgers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.617 (away 100-62) vs home 65-97 0.401, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 5/2 Hit
67% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Los Angeles Dodgers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals San Francisco Giants team runs Over 3.5· Runs San Francisco Giants Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.401 (home 65-97) vs away 100-62 0.617, Home advantage +4%· injury home 22 / away 7, matchup combination model
runs 1/6 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
