Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks — Game center Final MLB
Sep 15 (Tue) · 1:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Miami Marlins 42%
Arizona Diamondbacks 58%
Locked before start
Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Hit Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Hit Otto Lopez Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Miss Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.530 (home 80-71) vs away 74-77 0.490, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Miami Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching matchup
SA Sandy Alcantara Appearance confirmed
CB Corbin Burnes Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 76°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 102· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Arizona Diamondbacks home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% Miami Marlins away +1.5· Run Line Arizona Diamondbacks home -1.5· Run Line Miami Marlins away -1.5· Run Line games6 Miami Marlins team runs Over 3.5· Runs Low
season 4.4runs/G → park·weather·Opposing bullpen adjusted 3.9 pts, scoring distribution P(≥4)· simulation· stacking +7pp (meta-model over 414 past events)
runs 7/4 Hit
67% Arizona Diamondbacks Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.530 (home 80-71) vs away 74-77 0.490, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 8/8 Hit
58% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Miami Marlins Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.490 (away 74-77) vs home 80-71 0.530, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/9 Miss
42% Arizona Diamondbacks team runs Over 4.5· Runs batter77 Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Stowers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Javier Sanoja Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 1+· hits 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Stowers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nolan Arenado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xavier Edwards Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nolan Arenado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ketel Marte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gabriel Moreno Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Otto Lopez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Corbin Carroll Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Geraldo Perdomo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Heriberto Hernández 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Stowers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Corbin Carroll 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Javier Sanoja RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nolan Arenado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Otto Lopez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xavier Edwards 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ketel Marte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Geraldo Perdomo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gabriel Moreno 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ketel Marte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Corbin Carroll RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Javier Sanoja Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Javier Sanoja 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gabriel Moreno RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ildemaro Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Corbin Carroll Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Geraldo Perdomo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xavier Edwards Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gabriel Moreno Walks 1+· walks 1+ Otto Lopez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nolan Arenado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Otto Lopez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nolan Arenado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ketel Marte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Javier Sanoja Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ketel Marte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Geraldo Perdomo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xavier Edwards RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Javier Sanoja Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Stowers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xavier Edwards Hits 2+· hits 2+ Corbin Carroll Hits 2+· hits 2+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nolan Arenado HR· HR 1+ Heriberto Hernández HR· HR 1+ Ketel Marte HR· HR 1+ Corbin Carroll HR· HR 1+ Kyle Stowers HR· HR 1+ Gabriel Moreno HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas HR· HR 1+ Javier Sanoja HR· HR 1+ Otto Lopez HR· HR 1+ Geraldo Perdomo HR· HR 1+ Xavier Edwards HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
