Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks — Game center Final MLB
Sep 16 (Wed) · 1:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Miami Marlins 43%
Arizona Diamondbacks 57%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.526 (home 80-72) vs away 75-77 0.493, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Miami Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching matchup
JJ Janson Junk Appearance confirmed
MS Michael Soroka Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 74°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 102· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.255 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.231 adjusted 0.278, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.418
+19.6%p Statcast xBA
0.231 (actual 0.255)
-1.0%p Park Runs 102 / HR 103 74°F 0 mph, None Arizona Diamondbacks 6 OUT (Corbin Burnes …) Miami Marlins 11 OUT (Robby Snelling …) last 15G AVG 0.418 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.249 (393PA) Statcast xBA 0.231 (actual 0.255, overrated 24p) Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Arizona Diamondbacks home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
72% Miami Marlins away +1.5· Run Line Arizona Diamondbacks home -1.5· Run Line Miami Marlins away -1.5· Run Line batter77 NA Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.255 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.231 adjusted 0.278, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
69% Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 1+· hits 1+ Javier Sanoja Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 1+· hits 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Stowers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nolan Arenado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nolan Arenado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Geraldo Perdomo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gabriel Moreno Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Corbin Carroll 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nolan Arenado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ketel Marte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Corbin Carroll Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xavier Edwards Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gabriel Moreno RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ketel Marte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Heriberto Hernández RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ketel Marte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Corbin Carroll Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gabriel Moreno 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Otto Lopez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nolan Arenado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Heriberto Hernández 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Stowers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Corbin Carroll RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ildemaro Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Javier Sanoja Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gabriel Moreno Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 2+· hits 2+ Heriberto Hernández Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Javier Sanoja RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Stowers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Otto Lopez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ildemaro Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xavier Edwards 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Geraldo Perdomo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Javier Sanoja 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xavier Edwards Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Otto Lopez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ketel Marte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nolan Arenado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xavier Edwards RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 2+· hits 2+ Javier Sanoja Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xavier Edwards Hits 2+· hits 2+ Otto Lopez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Stowers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nolan Arenado HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Javier Sanoja Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández HR· HR 1+ Kyle Stowers HR· HR 1+ Ketel Marte HR· HR 1+ Corbin Carroll HR· HR 1+ Gabriel Moreno HR· HR 1+ Javier Sanoja HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas HR· HR 1+ Geraldo Perdomo HR· HR 1+ Otto Lopez HR· HR 1+ Xavier Edwards HR· HR 1+ games6 Arizona Diamondbacks team runs Over 4.5· Runs Arizona Diamondbacks Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.526 (home 80-72) vs away 75-77 0.493, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 2/5 Miss
57% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Miami Marlins team runs Over 3.5· Runs Miami Marlins Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.493 (away 75-77) vs home 80-72 0.526, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/3 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
