Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks — Game center Final MLB
Sep 17 (Thu) · 1:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Miami Marlins 43%
Arizona Diamondbacks 57%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.523 (home 80-73) vs away 76-77 0.497, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Miami Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching matchup
RG Ryan Gusto Appearance confirmed
MK Merrill Kelly Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 74°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 102· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 70%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.255 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.231 adjusted 0.278, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.418
+19.6%p Statcast xBA
0.231 (actual 0.255)
-1.0%p Park Runs 102 / HR 103 74°F 0 mph, None Arizona Diamondbacks 6 OUT (Corbin Burnes …) Miami Marlins 11 OUT (Robby Snelling …) last 15G AVG 0.418 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.249 (393PA) Statcast xBA 0.231 (actual 0.255, overrated 24p) Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Arizona Diamondbacks home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% Miami Marlins away +1.5· Run Line Arizona Diamondbacks home -1.5· Run Line Miami Marlins away -1.5· Run Line batter77 NA Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.255 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.231 adjusted 0.278, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
70% Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 1+· hits 1+ Javier Sanoja Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Stowers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nolan Arenado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Heriberto Hernández RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nolan Arenado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Geraldo Perdomo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xavier Edwards Walks 1+· walks 1+ Corbin Carroll 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Stowers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Heriberto Hernández 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ketel Marte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gabriel Moreno Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Corbin Carroll Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Heriberto Hernández Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gabriel Moreno RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ketel Marte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nolan Arenado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Geraldo Perdomo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Stowers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Otto Lopez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Corbin Carroll Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ketel Marte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Javier Sanoja Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Otto Lopez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Javier Sanoja RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xavier Edwards 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Corbin Carroll RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Javier Sanoja 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nolan Arenado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gabriel Moreno Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gabriel Moreno 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ildemaro Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 2+· hits 2+ Otto Lopez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xavier Edwards Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Otto Lopez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xavier Edwards RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nolan Arenado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ketel Marte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Otto Lopez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 2+· hits 2+ Corbin Carroll Hits 2+· hits 2+ Javier Sanoja Hits 2+· hits 2+ Javier Sanoja Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Stowers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xavier Edwards Hits 2+· hits 2+ Heriberto Hernández HR· HR 1+ Nolan Arenado HR· HR 1+ Kyle Stowers HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ketel Marte HR· HR 1+ Corbin Carroll HR· HR 1+ Gabriel Moreno HR· HR 1+ Javier Sanoja HR· HR 1+ Otto Lopez HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas HR· HR 1+ Geraldo Perdomo HR· HR 1+ Xavier Edwards HR· HR 1+ games6 Miami Marlins team runs Over 3.5· Runs Arizona Diamondbacks team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Arizona Diamondbacks Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.523 (home 80-73) vs away 76-77 0.497, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 3/5 Miss
57% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Miami Marlins Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.497 (away 76-77) vs home 80-73 0.523, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/4 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
