Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs — Game center Final MLB
Sep 22 (Tue) · 11:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Miami Marlins 39%
Chicago Cubs 61%
Locked before start
Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ 60% Hit Chicago Cubs home +1.5· Run Line 74% Nico Hoerner Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61% Miss Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.554 (home 87-70) vs away 77-80 0.490, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Miami Marlins Chicago Cubs
Pitching matchup
JJ Janson Junk Appearance confirmed
SI Shota Imanaga Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 62°F· wind 13 mph, In From CF· park factor runs 101· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.305 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.281 adjusted 0.330, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.339
+4.1%p Park Runs 101 / HR 102 62°F 13 mph, In From CF Chicago Cubs 9 OUT (Justin Steele …) Miami Marlins 11 OUT (Robby Snelling …) last 15G AVG 0.339 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.340 (159PA) Statcast xBA 0.281 (actual 0.305, overrated 24p) Javier Sanoja Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nico Hoerner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago Cubs home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 4.6 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
74% Miami Marlins away +1.5· Run Line Chicago Cubs home -1.5· Run Line Miami Marlins away -1.5· Run Line batter77 OL Otto Lopez Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.305 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.281 adjusted 0.330, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
65% Javier Sanoja Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nico Hoerner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Busch Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ian Happ Hits 1+· hits 1+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 1+· hits 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Stowers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Seiya Suzuki 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Otto Lopez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alex Bregman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Seiya Suzuki Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ian Happ Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Busch Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alex Bregman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ian Happ 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Seiya Suzuki RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ian Happ RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alex Bregman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Heriberto Hernández RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Busch 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Busch RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Heriberto Hernández Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Seiya Suzuki Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Stowers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Javier Sanoja RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Otto Lopez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ian Happ Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Busch Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Javier Sanoja Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nico Hoerner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nico Hoerner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Stowers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xavier Edwards 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Otto Lopez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xavier Edwards Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alex Bregman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xavier Edwards Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Heriberto Hernández Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nico Hoerner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Heriberto Hernández 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Javier Sanoja Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nico Hoerner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nico Hoerner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Javier Sanoja 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xavier Edwards RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Otto Lopez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xavier Edwards Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Busch Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ian Happ Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong HR· HR 1+ Javier Sanoja Walks 1+· walks 1+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 2+· hits 2+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Stowers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Heriberto Hernández HR· HR 1+ Ian Happ HR· HR 1+ Kyle Stowers HR· HR 1+ Alex Bregman HR· HR 1+ Seiya Suzuki HR· HR 1+ Michael Busch HR· HR 1+ Javier Sanoja HR· HR 1+ Otto Lopez HR· HR 1+ Nico Hoerner HR· HR 1+ Xavier Edwards HR· HR 1+ games6 Chicago Cubs Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.554 (home 87-70) vs away 77-80 0.490, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 2/9 Miss
61% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Chicago Cubs team runs Over 4.5· Runs Miami Marlins team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Miami Marlins Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.490 (away 77-80) vs home 87-70 0.554, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 8/3 Hit
39% strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
