Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs — Game center Final MLB
Sep 23 (Wed) · 11:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Miami Marlins 40%
Chicago Cubs 60%
Locked before start
Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73% Miss Nico Hoerner Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Hit Alex Bregman Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66% Miss Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.551 (home 87-71) vs away 78-80 0.494, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Miami Marlins Chicago Cubs
Pitching matchup
RG Ryan Gusto Appearance confirmed
KG Kevin Gausman Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 63°F· wind 13 mph, In From RF· park factor runs 101· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.280 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.264 adjusted 0.271, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.267
-1.6%p Statcast xBA
0.264 (actual 0.280)
-0.7%p Park Runs 101 / HR 102 63°F 13 mph, In From RF Chicago Cubs 9 OUT (Justin Steele …) Miami Marlins 11 OUT (Robby Snelling …) last 15G AVG 0.267 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.279 (426PA) Statcast xBA 0.264 (actual 0.280, overrated 16p) Nico Hoerner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago Cubs home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 4.6 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
74% Miami Marlins away +1.5· Run Line Chicago Cubs home -1.5· Run Line Miami Marlins away -1.5· Run Line batter77 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.280 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.264 adjusted 0.271, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
73% Nico Hoerner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Busch Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ian Happ Hits 1+· hits 1+ Javier Sanoja Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Stowers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alex Bregman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ian Happ RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nico Hoerner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Seiya Suzuki RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alex Bregman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Seiya Suzuki 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ian Happ 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alex Bregman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Stowers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ian Happ Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Otto Lopez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Seiya Suzuki Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Busch 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Busch Walks 1+· walks 1+ Seiya Suzuki Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Busch Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Heriberto Hernández RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ian Happ Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Walks 1+· walks 1+ Javier Sanoja Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nico Hoerner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Busch RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Heriberto Hernández 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Heriberto Hernández Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Otto Lopez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Javier Sanoja RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nico Hoerner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xavier Edwards 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alex Bregman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nico Hoerner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xavier Edwards Walks 1+· walks 1+ Javier Sanoja 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xavier Edwards Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alex Bregman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Stowers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández Walks 1+· walks 1+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 2+· hits 2+ Otto Lopez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Busch Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ian Happ Hits 2+· hits 2+ Javier Sanoja Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nico Hoerner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong HR· HR 1+ Kyle Stowers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Otto Lopez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 2+· hits 2+ Javier Sanoja Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xavier Edwards RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Heriberto Hernández HR· HR 1+ Kyle Stowers HR· HR 1+ Seiya Suzuki HR· HR 1+ Ian Happ HR· HR 1+ Alex Bregman HR· HR 1+ Michael Busch HR· HR 1+ Javier Sanoja HR· HR 1+ Otto Lopez HR· HR 1+ Nico Hoerner HR· HR 1+ Xavier Edwards HR· HR 1+ games6 Chicago Cubs team runs Over 4.5· Runs Chicago Cubs Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.551 (home 87-71) vs away 78-80 0.494, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 2/4 Miss
60% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Miami Marlins team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Miami Marlins Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.494 (away 78-80) vs home 87-71 0.551, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/3 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
