Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs — Game center Final MLB
Sep 24 (Thu) · 6:20 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Miami Marlins 40%
Chicago Cubs 60%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.553 (home 88-71) vs away 78-81 0.491, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Miami Marlins Chicago Cubs
Pitching matchup
TP Tyler Phillips Appearance confirmed
MB Matthew Boyd Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 65°F· wind 9 mph, In From CF· park factor runs 101· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.280 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.264 adjusted 0.271, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.267
-1.6%p Statcast xBA
0.264 (actual 0.280)
-0.7%p Park Runs 101 / HR 102 65°F 9 mph, In From CF Chicago Cubs 9 OUT (Justin Steele …) Miami Marlins 11 OUT (Robby Snelling …) last 15G AVG 0.267 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.279 (426PA) Statcast xBA 0.264 (actual 0.280, overrated 16p) Nico Hoerner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago Cubs home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.6 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
75% Miami Marlins away +1.5· Run Line Chicago Cubs home -1.5· Run Line Miami Marlins away -1.5· Run Line batter77 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.280 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.264 adjusted 0.271, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
68% Nico Hoerner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Javier Sanoja Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Busch Hits 1+· hits 1+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ian Happ Hits 1+· hits 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Stowers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Busch Walks 1+· walks 1+ Seiya Suzuki Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ian Happ Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alex Bregman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alex Bregman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Seiya Suzuki RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alex Bregman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Seiya Suzuki 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alex Bregman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ian Happ 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ian Happ RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nico Hoerner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xavier Edwards Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Busch 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Otto Lopez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Heriberto Hernández Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Busch RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Heriberto Hernández RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nico Hoerner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Seiya Suzuki Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ian Happ Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Javier Sanoja Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Busch Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Heriberto Hernández Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 2+· hits 2+ Heriberto Hernández 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Stowers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Javier Sanoja RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Otto Lopez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Stowers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nico Hoerner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Javier Sanoja 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Stowers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xavier Edwards 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Otto Lopez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nico Hoerner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nico Hoerner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alex Bregman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xavier Edwards Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xavier Edwards RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong HR· HR 1+ Javier Sanoja Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Busch Hits 2+· hits 2+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 2+· hits 2+ Otto Lopez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ian Happ Hits 2+· hits 2+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 2+· hits 2+ Javier Sanoja Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 2+· hits 2+ Heriberto Hernández HR· HR 1+ Alex Bregman HR· HR 1+ Kyle Stowers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ian Happ HR· HR 1+ Seiya Suzuki HR· HR 1+ Kyle Stowers HR· HR 1+ Michael Busch HR· HR 1+ Javier Sanoja HR· HR 1+ Otto Lopez HR· HR 1+ Nico Hoerner HR· HR 1+ Xavier Edwards HR· HR 1+ games6 Chicago Cubs Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.553 (home 88-71) vs away 78-81 0.491, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 2/2 Hit
60% Chicago Cubs team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Miami Marlins Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.491 (away 78-81) vs home 88-71 0.553, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/3 Miss
40% Miami Marlins team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
